Posts

Free Pick 11/14/19

A nice run the last few days to get everyone to come in from the ledge.  Some of the newer members were ready to jump after a bad week, but I think they are safely back inside now.  No jumping on my watch!  Members from last year just took the bad week in stride, knowing we would be fine. 

If you want to have more money in a few months than you do now, it's a great time to sign-up for a season membership. You can also use the pay links on here to get weekly or daily bets.  It's the best time of year with basketball and hockey every day, plus football on the weekends. 

NHL
Vancouver -134 vs Dallas


5K Documented Picks

I've reached 5K documented picks with a 1.5% ROI on Pickmonitor.com.   Nobody else is above 1% ROI with 5K picks.   For those that don't know, the ROI is how much you expect to make on each bet.  An example: Let's say you bet $100 per game and have a long-term ROI of 1.5%.  That means your expectation is to make $1.50 on every bet - doesn't matter if the bet wins or loses.  If you make 2500 bets in a year, your annual profit expectation is $3750. 

About 99% of people who bet on sports have a negative ROI, which means they are long-term losers.  Let's consider a guy who bets only standard -110 bets and wins 50% of his bets.  His ROI is -4.76%.  So he will lose $4.76 on every bet he makes - again it doesn't matter if the bet wins or loses.  At 2500 bets in a year, he will lose -$11,900.   His winning percentage would have to increase to 52.4% to break even in a year. 

So what long-term ROI do pro's have?  The very best in the world, less than 1% of sports bet…

Free Pick 11/12/19

Lots of games to handicap with so many sports going right now, so going to keep this short.  Send an email if you would like to sign-up for the season, it's a great time of year to get started.

College Football

Eastern Michigan vs Akron Under 47.5.   I bet this and sent to members at 49, but still value at 47 or better.

Weekend 11/9 - 11/11/19

A busy weekend, here's some picks to hopefully make it a profitable weekend for you.

Saturday

EPL
Leicester City +103 vs Arsenal

College Football
Minnesota +7 vs Penn State
Kansas State +7 vs Texas

Sunday

EPL
Brighton +0.5 +145 vs Manchester United

NFL
Arizona vs Tampa Bay Over 52

Monday

Free Pick 11/8/19

So how many hockey games can I lose in overtime in one day.  Well I found the answer yesterday was 3.  These things should even out by years end, so hopefully it will be sooner rather than later.  But I'm still ahead for the year even after all that.  And basketball picked up a couple wins, so it turns out the world isn't ending after all.


Thanks for saving the world Eppley, now how about a free winner.
NHL Buffalo +145 vs Tampa Bay
LeagueWLUWPeUeWPROIZAOPAURADPNHL OT Included43501.6746.245.0953.341.820.16+1230.982.82Overall43501.6746.245.0953.341.820.16+1230.982.82

Free Pick 11/7/19

Anyone who had a daily or weekly subscription should email me and I'll give you a month for free.  I know you're disappointed, but it will improve.  Season long members don't panic, we'll be fine.  Some of you are new this year and don't have a long track record of ever winning so you're worried, I get it.  But I've been doing this for 30+ years, so you're in good hands.  I'm not going anywhere. Not going to disappear, change the name, etc.  I know some of you may have experienced things like that elsewhere.

I also wanted to mention that not one returning member from last year has expressed any concern.  It's obviously a trust we've built over time - and an increased bankroll.

We get it Eppley, bad weeks happen, now what about that free winner.

NHL
Florida -110 vs Washington


Free Pick 11/6/19

I think these college football committee  members should have to bet on the games based on their rankings.  They would go broke.  Do they really believe Oregon and Utah would be favorites vs Oklahoma on a neutral field?  Penn State would be a favorite vs Alabama and Clemson on a neutral field?  They need to have someone who makes lines for a living on the committee.  Either a pro handicapper or someone from Bookmaker or Pinnacle. 

Well yeah, we agree Eppley, the committee is a bunch of morons, now can we get to the free winner.

Champions League
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dinamo Zagreb Over 2.5 -115.   I had the Over in the first match these teams played and it ended a 2-2 draw.  There could have been even more goals in that match as there were blown chances by both teams.  This should be a wide-open fast paced exciting match.  If there's an early goal, it might go Over by halftime as the losing side tries to push the pace even more.