EppleySports

Another winning day in baseball yesterday, so let's find a winner on today's very short schedule. MLB Cincinnati -115 (Mahle, xFIP 3.82) vs Milwaukee (Houser, xFIP 3.28).  Mahle's K:BB ratio is 4:1 and Houser's is slightly over 2:1.  Houser walks 11% which is just way too many.  As I mentioned yesterday, the Reds have an advantage in the bullpen.  And home teams have dominated in NL Central games. 

The Phillies couldn't hold a 6-1 lead yesterday so the free pick winning streak ended, but overall it was another winning day in baseball.  You can click on the baseball link above for this seasons results.  Sunday baseball: MLB Cincinnati +100 (DeSclafani, xFIP 4.44) vs Cubs (Lester, xFIP 4.09).  Starting pitching is equal in this game, but the Reds have the best bullpen in the National League and the Cubs bullpen ranks near the bottom.  Also, the Cubs are lousy 16-22 on the road, even worse in division games.  In fact, not one team in the NL Central has a winning record on the road.   Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds are all going to stay near .500 until the end of the season.  ESPN will tell you it's because they are all good teams, but it's the opposite - none of them are good teams.  As a general rule, you should look to bet on any home underdogs within this division unless there's an obvious pitching advantage.

Another winning day yesterday.  Let's keep it going with some afternoon baseball and evening fights. MLB Philadelphia -125 (Eflin, xFIP 4.74) vs Miami (Yamamoto, xFIP 4.60).  Yamamoto has started 3 games and has an ERA 0.95 so the public will be all over Miami in this game.  But his xFIP is 4.60 so we know he's not nearly as good as everyone thinks.  Consider these underlying numbers:  BABIP .167, HR% 0, BB% 11, GB% 33.  So he's a fly ball pitcher who hasn't given up a home run yet.  That will change.  He also walks a lot of guys, so those home runs probably won't be solo shots.  And his BABIP will regress to .300 like all pitchers eventually do.  Look for Philly to score a bunch. UFC Last week I mentioned it was a card full of favorites, and that turned out to be the case.  This week there's some underdogs worth betting. Marco  Polo Reyes +290 vs Drew Dober Jussier Formiga +140 vs Joseph Benavidez

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.44  Toronto Blue Jays -113  vs Kansas City Royals Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  UNDER 7.5 -107  vs New York Mets Risked 0.67 units to win 0.51  New York Mets -131  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 10 -100  vs Detroit Tigers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.51  UNDER 7.5 +102  vs Tampa Bay Rays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  UNDER 9 +106  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.33 units to win 0.67  Seattle Mariners +203  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.67 units to win 0.33  Los Angeles Dodgers -206  vs Colorado Rockies Risked 0.5 units to win 0.49  OVER 8 -102  vs San Francisco Giants Risked 0.5 units to win 0.48  San Francisco Giants -104  vs Arizona Diamondbacks These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor  

The Padres won easily yesterday, let's try to find another easy winner today. MLB Washington -190 (Strasburg, xFIP 3.21) vs Miami (Alcantara, xFIP 5.06).  Strasburg is one of the best in baseball with K% 29 and GB% 52.  Alcantara is awful with K% 16 and BB% 11.  Any pitcher with less than 2:1 ratio of K:BB is worth fading.  The Nationals have been red hot lately and there's nothing to suggest they get slowed down here. 

Wednesday afternoon baseball. MLB San Diego -145 (Strahm, xFIP 4.75) vs Baltimore (Bundy, xFIP 4.60).  Well the Orioles are awful, we all know that.  But in this game we have Bundy with a GB% 36 and 17% of fly balls are home runs off of him.  So lots of fly balls, and lots of those are home runs.  The Padres bats have been hot, no reason to think they cool off here.  Strahm is pretty good with a K 21% and BB 5%.  He doesn't need to be great, just pitch reasonably well and the Padres should win comfortably. 

I'm still trying to figure out how the Padres blow a 3-run lead in the 9th, then blow another 3-run lead in the 11th.  Yates, the Padres closer, had given up 4 runs the whole year.  Then gives up 3 in the 9th yesterday.   While that was going on, the Nationals and Giants both lost in extra innings.  And the Mets bullpen blows the win for deGrom for an absolutely brutal day. Well can't do anything but put it behind us, so let's look at today: MLB Cleveland -150 (Plutko, xFIP 5.03) vs Kansas City (Keller, xFIP 5.05).   There's one major difference between these pitchers.  Plutko K 20%, BB 3%.  Keller K 16%, BB 11%.   Plutko's K:BB ratio is nearly 7:1 while Keller's in less than 2:1.    Bet the Tribe with 2 fistfulls (not more than 1% of your bankroll of course)

Sunday afternoon baseball. MLB NY Mets -115 (deGrom, xFIP 3.27) vs Cubs (Hamels, xFIP 3.90).   Hamels has a 2.85 ERA, but his xFIP is a full run higher, so he's been getting lucky.  It's not that he's a bad pitcher at 3.90, but deGrom is one of the best in baseball.  And we get a good price because the public loves the Cubs.

Baseball and UFC today.  Let's make it a winning Saturday. MLB Cincinnati -105 (Castillo, xFIP 3.65) vs Milwaukee (Chacin, xFIP 5.62).   As some of you know, I bet the Reds to win the division at the beginning of the year.  After a slow start, they are starting to play like contenders.  But the public still hasn't caught on that the Brewers aren't very good and the Reds are much better than their record suggests.  So we get a great price on the better team and a huge advantage on the mound.  Castillo is my favorite type of pitcher, K 29% and GB 57%.  That means very few fly balls, which obviously limits home runs and extra base hits.  Then there's Chacin who is my favorite type of pitcher to bet against, K 18%, BB 11%, GB 34%.  Notice K:BB ratio is less than 2:1 which is awful.  Then there's lots of fly balls.  So lots of walks and fly balls generally equals 3-run homers.  Cincy's bats should stay hot and score a bunch. UFC Kevin Holland -220 vs Alessio Di

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  UNDER 8.5 +106  vs Pittsburgh Pirates Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  LAA Angels -110  vs St. Louis Cardinals Risked 0.67 units to win 0.88  Kansas City Royals +132  vs Minnesota Twins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.44  UNDER 7.5 -114  vs Los Angeles Dodgers These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

I'm not one to spend much time promoting myself on Pickmonitor or on any social media, but I wanted to mention an accomplishment I thought would give all of you even more confidence that you're following one of the very few people who actually wins long-term.  I'm 1 of only 3 on Pickmonitor to make 4K picks with an ROI > 1%.   Tens of thousands of accounts and you won't find any active account with a better record.  Feel free to tell your friends. As good as that is, consider that's with the baseball record all screwed up due to years of not grading pitching changes correctly.  That's why I have a link to a baseball spreadsheet listed above so there's an accurate record.  Notice baseball is down -0.90% this year but certainly recovering from a lousy start.  It's a long season, the profit will come. Well enough self-promotion crap, what have you done for me today! MLB San Diego -105 (Strahm, xFIP 4.65) vs Milwaukee (Davies, xFIP 4.90).  Davies h

Baseball is on a nice winning streak right now, check the spreadsheet above for every game this season. I know the Mets let us down yesterday, but we're going right back on them today. MLB NY Mets -120 (deGrom, xFIP 3.26) vs Atlanta (Teheran, xFIP 4.93).  Teheran has an xFIP 2 runs higher than his ERA.  So he's not nearly as good as the public thinks he is.  One of the main reason for the disparity is his walk rate over 11%.  You can't keep putting guys on base and expect to constantly pitch out of trouble.  But because of public perception that Teheran is good and the Braves are great, we are getting a terrific price on one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

Baseball today: MLB NY Mets +140 (Wheeler, xFIP 3.85) vs Atlanta (Soroka, xFIP 3.57).   Of course the public will love the Braves in this game because they have a better record and the perceived better pitcher with a 1.92 ERA.  Soroka has been pretty damn lucky as his xFIP of 1.5 runs higher than his ERA indicates.  One of the underlying components is his .242 BABIP, which means balls will start to fall in for hits soon enough.  That obviously will lead to more runs.  I'll also mention the Braves as a team have been extremely lucky so far.  Like Soroka, both Teheren and Newcomb have much higher xFIP than ERA.  So look for Atlanta to regress back to a .500 record eventually. 

Happy Fathers Day to everyone.  Let's enjoy the day with some winners. MLB Pittsburgh -105 (Archer, xFIP 4.87) vs Miami (Alcantara, xFIP 5.06).  I know Archer hasn't been great this year, but that's primarily due to 24% of fly balls being home runs against him.  That rate would be hard to maintain against a batting practice machine.  Alcantara is just terrible with a K:BB ratio of less than 2:1 and he walks 11% of batters.  Archer has been unlucky, Alcantara is just bad. Cincinnati -165 (Gray, xFIP 3.55) vs Texas (Jurado, xFIP 4.27).  Jurado is a fly ball pitcher with a 13% home run rate.  That's not a good combination in Cincinnati, known as the Great Little Ballpark. COPA America Uruguay -145 vs Ecuador.  Ecuador is unlikely to score, so Uruguay need to get just 1 to win. I also bet Justin Rose +140 to win the US Open.  He's one shot back of  Gary Woodland who I think will collapse under the pressure.  Koepka is 3 shots behind Rose, but can he win 3 cons

A baseball Saturday: MLB Philadelphia -105 (Nola, xFIP 3.79) vs Atlanta (Newcomb, xFIP 4.79).  Newcomb has a 2.59 ERA which is why the public will think Atlanta is a good play here.  But he has a 43.4% ground ball rate, which is bad.  The reason for his 4.79 xFIP is because he's a fly ball pitcher.  He's been fortunate with only 5% of those fly balls going over the wall.  Then there's Nola with a BABIP .340, which will regress to .300 so that explains his 4.58 ERA. 

My Tracked Plays Risked 1 unit to win 0.52  Washington Nationals -193  vs Arizona Diamondbacks Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 7.5 -112  vs Tampa Bay Rays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 8.5 +100  vs Chicago White Sox Risked 0.5 units to win 0.49  UNDER 8 -103  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.5 units to win 0.52  UNDER 9 +104  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.5 units to win 0.52  UNDER 7.5 +103  vs Los Angeles Dodgers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.62  San Francisco Giants +124  vs Milwaukee Brewers These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

The Blues winning for us yesterday capped off a terrific NHL season.  2018-19 season record 230-216 with average odds of +127 for $4537.12 of profit per $100 bet.  I know people don't like to bet on hockey because they don't watch it, but it is a consistent money-maker because books don't put much effort into setting the lines with football and basketball going on at the same time. MLB Toronto -145 (Stroman, xFIP 4.21)  vs. Baltimore (Ynoa, xFIP 4.54).  Ynoa has a 50% ground ball rate, which means half the balls are hit in the air against him.  And 18% of fly balls end up over the fence against him.  And Baltimore is a home run hitters paradise.  You can see where this is going...going...gone.  The Blue Jays should score a bunch. 

With a series bet pending on St Louis, I haven't bet them in game 7.  But if you don't have a series bet pending, the Blues are a good bet at +150. Some of you won with Toronto +1.5, some of you got a push with +1.   I got some emails asking why not take the money line at even money.  Always take the points. NHL St Louis +150 vs Boston (don't bet again if you have a series bet) MLB Cincinnati +115 (Desclafani, xFIP 4.49) vs Cleveland (Plesac, xFIP 4.25).  Plesac has a 1.86 ERA which is why the Indians are priced as the favorite.  ERA of course has no correlation to predicting the future performance of a pitcher, while xFIP is a predictive statistic.  The main reason for the large difference between Plesac's ERA and xFIP is his BABIP of .235.  All pitchers will regress to around .300 BABIP so look for Plesac to give up some runs in his next few starts.

A Saturday without basketball, hockey,  or football.  If it were up to me, we'd move the calendar to September.  Let's get through the summer with baseball and UFC. MLB St Louis -105 (Flaherty, xFIP 3.73) vs Chicago Cubs (Lester, xFIP 4.32) Washington -150 (Scherzer, xFIP 2.91) vs San Diego (Lauer, xFIP 4.61) UFC T. Ferguson -150 vs D. Cerrone M. Moraes -130 vs H. Cejudo

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.35  Toronto Blue Jays -141  vs Arizona Diamondbacks Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 8.5 -111  vs Detroit Tigers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.58  Detroit Tigers +116  vs Minnesota Twins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 8 -110  vs Miami Marlins Risked 1 unit to win 0.53  New York Mets -190  vs Colorado Rockies Risked 0.5 units to win 0.48  UNDER 8 -105  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.5 units to win 0.46  UNDER 9 -108  vs LAA Angels These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor Update: Gibson was scratched for the Twins. Detroit +110 (Boyd) vs Minnesota (Pineda) Minnesota vs Detroit Under 9 -110 (Boyd vs Pineda) Added: Cincinnati +105 (Mahle) vs Philadelphia (Eflin)

Toronto covered for basketball members yesterday.  I couldn't put anything on here about the game because of all the injuries, had to wait until late in the day to determine who was playing. Back to the NHL tonight.  Series bet on the Blues is still in good shape, but we'll take whatever value there is in today's game. NHL St Louis +140 vs Boston.   This line should be St Louis +115, but it's inflated due to public perception.

The Blues won for us yesterday, free picks 3-0 last couple days.  Baseball also on a nice winning streak.  Glad everyone is making money. Here's all of today's baseball for free today - My Tracked Plays Risked 1 unit to win 0.4  Washington Nationals -249  vs Chicago White Sox Risked 0.67 units to win 0.52  Cleveland Indians -128  vs Minnesota Twins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 7 -100  vs New York Mets Risked 1 unit to win 0.43  Tampa Bay Rays -232  vs Detroit Tigers Risked 0.33 units to win 0.5  Miami Marlins +150  vs Milwaukee Brewers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  Baltimore Orioles +105  vs Texas Rangers Risked 0.67 units to win 0.56  Cincinnati Reds -119  vs St. Louis Cardinals Risked 1 unit to win 0.5  Los Angeles Dodgers -201  vs Arizona Diamondbacks Risked 0.5 units to win 0.44  LAA Angels -114  vs Oakland Athletics These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Good teams who get embarrassed have been a profitable bet for me for decades.  Generally "good team" is defined as above .500 winning percentage, so it applies to all playoff teams.  It works in all sports except baseball.  The reason is because baseball is not a physical sport.  All other sports - football, basketball, hockey, soccer - teams can impose their will on their opponents. The Blues were embarrassed in Game 3.  The public won't want anything to do with them which gives value in the price.  And they will be highly motivated.  NHL St Louis -110 vs Boston   

I'll probably have a play on the NBA game today, but I haven't bet anything yet.  Waiting to see where this line goes in the morning.  Right now we are seeing the same betting patterns we saw for game 1 - public likes Warriors and Over, but line movement towards Toronto and Under.  Baseball record heating up along with the weather.  Totals, mostly Unders, are extremely hot. MLB Washington -125 (Scherzer) vs Cincinnati (Gray) Houston -130 (Cole) vs Oakland (Bassitt)

Another winning Free Friday for anyone who followed along. No value in the NHL game today.  Obviously rooting for the Blues since I have a series bet on them, but I would bet either side if there was any value to be had.  The over 5 is attractive, but most books have it -130 or -140 so it's a pass on the side and total for Game 3. Champions League Tottenham vs Liverpool Over 2.5 -130 MLB Houston -160 (Verlander) vs Oakland (Anderson).  UFC Sung Bin Jo -145 vs Daniel Teymur