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Basketball  picks documented on Pickmonitor.com Any questions EppleySports@gmail.com Free NHL pick: Chicago +100 vs Winnipeg.  The Blackhawks still have a chance, albeit a slim chance, to make the playoffs.  They should play with desperation and urgency, while Winnipeg is comfortably in the playoffs and have mailed in their last 3 games.  My model has Chicago with a 53.1% to win, which is -113 so there's about 3% line value.

Basketball picks documented at  Pickmonitor Any questions about rates or subscriptions EppleySports@gmail.com Free picks on a 8-1 run.  Lets's keep it going with: Kentucky -4.5 vs Auburn.  Auburn shot the lights out of the building against North Carolina, so don't anticipate an encore.  While Auburn had all week to prepare for North Carolina, they only have 2 days to prepare for Kentucky. Bruce Pearl is possibly the worst coach in college basketball, so I don't see any great game plan being developed.  Meanwhile, Calipari is one of the best and will have a plan to slow the tempo and make it a half court game, which Auburn is awful at playing.  These teams just played about a month ago, and Kentucky slaughtered Auburn by 27 points.  The talent level isn't even close with Kentucky having 3 guys that most likely will be picked in the top 5 NBA draft.  Assuming Auburn doesn't shoot 67% from 3's in the 2nd half again, Kentucky should win and cover easily.

Basketball picks documented  here Any questions EppleySports@gmail.com Saturday free picks: Premier League Leicester City -125 vs Bournemouth. MLB Cleveland (Bauer) -112 vs Minnesota (Odorizzi)

Basketball  picks documented at Pickmonitor.   The next few weeks there will be a limited amount of picks as the season comes to an end.  But things will pick up again when the playoffs start in a few weeks. Any questions EppleySports@gmail.com Kentucky -2.5 vs Houston.  I have the true line should be -5, so there's some line value.  Kentucky certainly is the more talented team with at least 3 guys headed to the NBA.  As long as Houston doesn't make a bunch of 3's, Kentucky should have no problem here.

The last couple weeks of the NBA season normally sees a reduction in the volume of bets because teams that are eliminated from the playoffs will play their younger players more minutes.  Every day another team is eliminated.  Then there's teams who are comfortably locked in to their playoff position, so they start to rest star players for the playoffs.  One battle that will probably go to the last day of the season is the race to avoid the 8th spot in the West.  Obviously nobody wants to play the Warriors in the first round. Opening day of baseball free pick: St Louis +100 (Mikolas) vs Milwaukee (Chacin).  Big advantage in starting pitching for the Cardinals, and they have the better bullpen.  Both teams very good hitting teams, but I have the Cardinals rated slightly higher.  True line should be -131 so getting the Cardinals at +100 is good line value. Baseball spreadsheet  with theoretical 10K starting bankroll and recalculating bet percentages every day.

I explained earlier that you shouldn't ever risk more than 1% on any game.  So a bankroll of 10K would be a $100 maximum bet.  If you like to use different levels of betting, then always reduce the first level below 1%.  So if you have 1 unit bets and 2 unit bets, the 1 unit might be 0.5% and the 2 unit bets 1%.  But should your maximum bet always be $100 with a 10K bankroll?  What you want to do is raise your bet when you're winning and lower it when you're losing.  You can do this by recalculating your 1% every day.  Example: 10K bank, 1%=100 bet.  You bet 3 games at -115, +105, +130.  In yesterday's post I explained how to bet these games.  So you would bet 100 to win 86.96 at -115, 114.29 to win 120 at +105, 92.31 to win 120 at +130.  Let's say they all win for a total of +326.96. Now your bankroll is 10,326.96, so 1%=103.27.  So you would bet 103.27 on any favorite.  But don't forget to add your 20% to small underdogs so you would bet 107.76 to win 123.

A quick recap.  Example is team A is -120 and team B is +110.  Three ways to bet: 1) Traditional - risk 120 to win 100 on team A or risk 100 to win 110 on team B; 2) Risk same amount - bet 100 on either team; 3) To win same amount - bet to win 100 on either team. For a more detailed explanation, it was covered in an earlier post. So which way is best?  First, let's look at why the traditional way of betting doesn't work,  Let's say you bet 2 games.  Game 1 you bet 120 to win 100 on a favorite, and game 2 you bet 100 to win 110 on an underdog.  If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you break even.  If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you lose -10.  So the only way for you to win is for both games to win. But now let's say you bet the same 2 games using method #2 above.  So now you bet 100 to win 83.33 on the favorite and 100 to win  110 on the dog.  If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you lose -16.67.  If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you win +

Great day yesterday 4-0.  Picks documented at  EppleySports .  Also great day for the free picks here yesterday, either 2-0-1 or 3-0 depending on what line you got with Maryland.  On to today - Virginia -10.5 vs Oklahoma.  Oklahoma was in a tailspin at the end of the season, now they are off a great shooting performance against Ole Miss.  Virginia got a first half scare, then throttled Gardner Webb.  Look for Virginia to be fully focused here and Oklahoma to revert back to what they are.  Line should be -19.5. Texas Tech -3  vs Buffalo.  Tech has the best defensive efficiency rating in the country.  Buffalo hasn't seen a defense anywhere near this good all year.  Line should be -7. Any questions about pick packages, EppleySports@gmail.com

The Saturday NCAA games all have tight lines, meaning there's very little value in any of them.  But a little value is better than none, so the best picks for Saturday are: - Maryland +2 vs LSU.   True line on this game is LSU -0.5 so getting a free basket is pretty good.  Also, the public loves LSU in this game, which is another reason to side with Maryland.  - Kentucky -5.5 vs Wofford. True line is -7.5.  The public is now in love with Wofford, the little team that can shoot.  Oh and PJ Washington is out for Kentucky so everyone run to the window to bet Wofford.  For this reason alone, I'd rather have Kentucky.  Wofford can shoot, not denying that.  But they are not used to shooting over NBA talent and size.  - Purdue -4 vs Villanova.  True line is -8.  Purdue has more size and has played much better competition.  Line value is enough to warrant a bet. See documented picks at  EppleySports

Picks documented at  EppleySports . Basketball picks for the rest of the season available for $200, including NCAA tournament and NBA playoffs.  Monday last day to sign-up.  EppleySports@gmail.com. Very little value in the Midwest.  Best games to consider look to be North Carolina -24 against Iona, Wofford -3 against Seton Hall.  Some things to keep in mind when filling out your bracket: 1) Upsets happen in early rounds, but those teams generally lose their next game; 2) The top seeds dominate later in the tournament; 3) Add the seeds together of your Final Four teams and it shouldn't equal more than 10.  So a #1, #1, #2, and a #4 would equal 8.  If your Final Four seeds total more than 10, it's unlikely to happen. Enjoy the tournament, best of luck with your brackets.

Basketball picks emailed to you for $200, including NCAA tournament and NBA playoffs.  Monday the last day to sign-up.  EppleySports@gmail.com. Picks documented at  EppleySports . The South region looks to have the most games with value.  Consider betting Virginia -24.5 against Gardner Webb, Oklahoma +2 against Ole Miss, Wisconsin pk against Oregon, St Mary's +5.5 against Villanova, Purdue -12.5 against Old Dominion, Kansas State -5.5 UC Irvine.

Monday is the last day to get signed-up for the rest of basketball season.  EppleySports@gmail.com. Picks documented at  EppleySports . The best in this region looks to be Texas Tech -14.5 against Northern Kentucky, Florida +2.5 against Nevada, Michigan -15 against Montana. Look for Gonzaga to clobber the winner of FDU/Prairie View.  A line of -25 or less is probably worth a bet.  Zags irritated about losing the conference title game and they can name the final score in this game.

Basketball picks available for $200, including NCAA tournament and NBA playoffs. Picks documented on Pickmonitor.com The games worth a look in this region are Virginia Tech -9.5 against St Louis, LSU -7.5 against Yale, Michigan State -18.5 against Bradley.  People love 12 seeds, but I don't think Liberty can get by Mississippi State.  But it is March, and weird things have been known to happen.  I wouldn't bet money on it though.

Arizona State -1 against St John's looks to be the best bet of the play-in games.  My model has them at -2.5.  There's some value on North Dakota State -5.5 against NC Central.   Picks documented at Pickmonitor.com.  Picks available through the NBA playoffs.  EppleySports@gmail.com

The NCAA tournament brackets come out Sunday night and suddenly everyone will be paying attention to college basketball.  Have a question about a game?  What should the line be?  Where's the sharp money going?  Ask about any game, and I'll answer on here. Basketball picks still available for $200 through the NBA playoffs.  Monday is the last day to get signed-up.  EppleySports@gmail.com. Documented record on Pickmonitor.com. Get up early Sunday morning to watch some soccer. Premier League - Liverpool / Fulham Under 3 +100

In money line sports (baseball, hockey), should you bet more on a favorite?  Let's say team A is -120 and team B +110.  The traditional way of betting is to bet $120 to win $100 on team A, or bet $100 to win $110 on team B.  But there are other ways of betting: -Bet $100 on either team.  So $100 to win $83.33 on team A, or $100 to win $110 on team B.  This style of betting values underdogs more than favorites.  It also lets you bet large favorites without having to risk any more than $100.  However, this style of betting is generally preferred by guys who bet mostly underdogs. -Bet to win $100 on either team.  So $120 to win $100 on team A, or $91 to win $100.10 on team B.  This style of betting values favorites and underdogs about the same.  A slightly different version of this style is to add 10% to the underdog win amount.  It lets you bet large underdogs with less risk than the other betting styles.  A +250 dog would be $40 to win $100, or $44 to win $110.  So which

Basketball picks still available for the remainder of the season for only $200, including the NCAA tournament and the NBA playoffs.  Contact EppleySports@gmail.com.  Offer ends Monday. Picks documented on Pickmonitor.  NHL bet - Colorado -175

How much should you bet?  I get this question a lot, and the answer is you shouldn't bet more than 1% of your bankroll on any game.  So a bankroll of 10K  would mean your maximum bet is $100 per game.  If you want to have different levels of wagers, you should reduce your levels.  For example, if you have 1 unit bets and 2 unit bets, then the 1 unit bet would be 0.5% and the 2 unit bet would be 1%.  With very rare exceptions, you should never bet more than 1% on anything.  When to raise your bet or lower your bet?  I'll cover that in another post. Basketball picks emailed to you for the remainder of the season for $200.  Price good until the NCAA tournament starts. NHL bet - Minnesota -115

Champions League bet - Liverpool to advance -120 EppleySports@gmail.com for basketball picks.  Pickmonitor.com for documented record.

Champions League bet - 224250 Juventus -145 Basketball picks on Pickmonitor.  Basketball $200 for the remaining season, including NCAA tournament and NBA playoffs.  All picks emailed to you. EppleySports@gmail.com.

NHL bet - Tampa Bay +105 Basketball picks entered on Pickmonitor.  Contact EppleySports@gmail.com to purchase picks.

Premier League bet - Burnley / Liverpool Under 3.5 -145 Basketball picks on Pickmonitor.com.  All basketball picks emailed to you for $200, including NCAA tournament and NBA playoffs. 

NHL bets - Edmonton +130, Carolina +135 Basketball picks are entered at www.Pickmonitor.com.  Every basketball pick for the remainder of the season can be emailed to you for $200.  That includes the NCAA tournament and the NBA playoffs.  Contact me on here or at EppleySports@gmail.com.

Welcome.  I live in Las Vegas and bet on sports for a living.  I've been betting since the 1980's, but it's been my primary income since October 2000.  This blog is dedicated to helping others win.  I've been hesitant to sell picks or advertise because I didn't want the hassle or the problems, such as maintaining lists, updating emails, and posting things such as this.  But I've been convinced to do it. Nearly all pick sellers either lose or don't bet.  They are marketers and advertisers, not handicappers.  They don't win, and they don't care if you win.  They make a living from selling picks.  This describes 99% of all ads you see. Here's an example.  They get 100 customers to buy picks, so they give 50 one side of the game and the other 50 get the opposite side.  So 50 customers are 1-0 and 50 are 0-1.  Then each group of 50 is split again, so 25 get one side and the other 25 get the opposite side of game 2.  So after 2 games, there are 25