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Showing posts from October, 2020

Free NFL Pick 11/1/20

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  Football was 8-4 yesterday.  Here's a quick look at the games. Football: 8 - 4, +3.43 units Time Pick Units Risked Units Won 10/31/20 4:30PM [193] Missouri +13 -108 1.08 -1.08 10/31/20 1:00PM Texas UNDER 59 -117 1.17 -1.17 10/31/20 1:00PM [185] Mississippi -17.5 -107 1.07 1 10/31/20 12:40PM [182] Auburn +3 -108 1.08 1 10/31/20 12:40PM [176] Baylor +3 -114 1.14 -1.14 10/31/20 12:05PM Rice UNDER 59 -112 1.12 1 10/31/20 12:00PM [173] Troy +3.5 -108 1.08 1 10/31/20 9:02AM Iowa State UNDER 54.5 -118 1.18 -1.18 10/31/20 9:00AM [138] Cincinnati -6.5 -114 1.14 1 10/31/20 9:00AM Temple UNDER 60 -109 1.09 1 10/31/20 9:00AM Coastal Carolina UNDER 61 -107 1.07 1 10/31/20 9:00AM Michigan State UNDER 52 -101 1.01 1 Not much value showing in the NFL right now, but things could change in the morning.  EPL Manchester United +110 vs Arsenal NFL Seattle -3 +100 vs San Francisco 

Free College Football Pick 10/31/20

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  A bunch of college games were sent to members throughout the week.  Nearly all of them already have significant closing line value.  That's why if you wait until Saturday to bet college football, it's nearly impossible to win in the long-term because the value is gone on most games.     I also have 2 EPL picks for Saturday morning.   EPL Sheffield United +1.5  +100 vs Manchester City College Football 193 Missouri +13.5 vs Florida 

Free NFL Pick 10/29/20

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  Another 2-2 day in the UCL yesterday.   It looks like we will have football and soccer on the schedule and not much else until college basketball starts next month.  There's some talk that the NBA and NHL might start in December, so let's hope that actually happens. There is some value on today's NFL game, both side and total.   NFL Atlanta +2 vs Carolina

Free UCL Pick 10/28/20

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  Baseball finished with another winner on the Under.  Closed the season on a 11-1 run on totals.  Overall the 2020 season finished at 135-102, +9.96 units, 8.41% ROI.  Nearly all bets were 0.5 units. UCL bets yesterday were 2-2.  We were unlucky with Atalanta, who won the xG  2.10 - 1.44, but got a 2-2 draw result.  I have 4 UCL bets for today.   UCL Club Brugge -104 vs Lazio.   This match was close to even with both teams healthy, but with Lazio having at least 9 players out with Covid, I think there's a substantial advantage for Brugge.   Lazio's 11 haven't played together and had very little time to prepare for this match. 

Free UCL Pick 10/27/20

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  Burnley lost yesterday to Tottenham.  Some of you wonder why anyone would bet against Tottenham.  They have Kane and Son and score 1.2 million goals per game, how could you bet against them?  Tottenham has been extremely fortunate with their scoring chances, and their luck continued yesterday.  Burnley won the xG battle 1.05 - 0.78, yet lost the game 1-0.  All we needed was a draw to win our bet, which shows just how fortunate Tottenham was to win.  I do have a baseball bet on the total for game 6.  Currently on a 10-1 streak on baseball totals.  Also, a bunch of college football bets were sent to members to take advantage of early line value.   UCL Atalanta -114 vs Ajax.  The public will remember Ajax from last year, but this isn't the same team.  Also, Ajax scoring 13 goals against an inferior team in their last game will give the public confidence.  Atalanta has much more talent and should win this match easily by at least 2 goals. 

Free EPL Pick 10/26/20

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  NFL was 3-3-2 (W-L-T) yesterday.   The Browns should offer free health insurance to all their fans with as many heart attacks they cause every week.   Another baseball total in the win column yesterday.  That's now a 10-1 streak.  Also Leicester a winner in the EPL, so a good day overall. Not much on the schedule today, but Monday is when we grab the early line value in college football so consider becoming a member  instead of waiting to buy picks on the weekend.   EPL Burnley +1 -107 vs Tottenham.   Pick is entered at Pickmonitor at +0.75 +111.  I personally bet it at +0.5 +133.   Try to find the best plus money but still win on the draw, but +1 -110 is also ok. 

Free NFL Pick 10/25/20

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  A disappointing day in college football yesterday.   It's one of those days I don't think I would bet anything different if I had to do it again because I beat the closing line in nearly every game, and by 3+ points in many games.  In the long run, that will produce profit.   You can always check my documented record at Pickmonitor that proves it.  A wild finish to the baseball game yesterday.  I didn't have a play on the game, but that 9th inning probably had everyone upset at some point.  And Jansen on the mound again, what are the Dodgers thinking?   I have at least 6 NFL bets today.  The line has moved significantly in 4 of them, which is encouraging for a possible big day.  I'll use a game that hasn't moved much as the free play. NFL Cleveland -3  -120 vs Cincinnati

College Football Week 8 Action

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Free College Football Pick 10/24/20

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  A winner in football yesterday with UL Lafayette +2 (closed -2.5) to get the weekend off to a good start.   It should be a big weekend as the closing line value looks terrific for members. Baseball streak ended at 9 in a row.   With 2 outs in the 9th, Jansen gave up a homer to kill the Under.  What a way to end a streak.   EPL Chelsea vs Manchester United Over 3  +100   College Football 368 Texas State vs BYU Under 61.5 

Free EPL Pick 10/23/20

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  Wednesday was 2-1 in the UCL, and baseball won again with the Over in game 2 of the World Series.  Baseball now on a 9-0 run in totals.  I do have a pick for game 3 to hopefully win the 10th in a row.   I also have a pick in college football today.  Both have already been given to members to take advantage of early line value. Baseball: 9 - 0, +4.06 units Time Pick Units Risked Units Won 10/21/20 5:08PM Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8 -113 0.5 0.44 10/20/20 5:12PM Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7.5 -106 0.5 0.47 10/18/20 5:15PM Atlanta Braves UNDER 8 -115 0.5 0.43 10/17/20 5:37PM Houston Astros UNDER 8 -106 0.5 0.47 10/16/20 3:08PM Houston Astros OVER 8 -103 0.5 0.49 10/15/20 2:08PM Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 9.5 -115 0.5 0.43 10/14/20 5:39PM Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8.5 -106 0.5 0.47 10/13/20 3:06PM Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5 -115 0.5 0.43 10/9/20 4:10PM New York Yankees UNDER 7.5 -120 0.5 0.42 Thursday was a quiet day with no picks on the small schedule. EPL Aston Villa +125 vs Leeds United 

Free UCL Pick 10/21/20

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  Champions League continues today with another 8 games on the schedule.  I've bet 3 of them, all of which have had significant line moves.  Beating the closing line will generate long-term profit, even though yesterday wasn't a great day.   Baseball continues to stay hot with another winner yesterday on the Over 7.5.  That's now a 6-1 overall streak, and 8-0 streak on totals.   No value on the overnights for game 2, but there might be line movement in the morning.   Champions League Olympiakos +127 vs Marseille.  Members got this at +142. 

Free UCL Pick 10/20/20

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  Football was 1-1 yesterday.  EPL was 1-0-1 (W-L-T) with a winner on the Wolves and a push on Burnley.   Lots of UCL games today and tomorrow.  I have at least 6 bets already sent earlier to members.  The 3 picks for today have all had significant price moves.  It's why it's important to know what the price should be, so you can exploit opening prices and lines.  It's why it's important to become a member, so I'll do all the work and you can follow along.  I beat the close over 60% of the time across all sports - much more in football (65%) and basketball (75%).  And these percentages are against Pinnacle lines, all documented on Pickmonitor.  Most of the time my members can get better lines at other books, so that increases their win percentage and profits.  Champions League Dortmund +105 vs Lazio I bet this at +117.  Members may have done even better at square books.      

Free EPL Pick 10/19/20

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  Football was 4-4 yesterday.   I'm not exactly sure what Houston was thinking when they decided to go for 2 with a 7 point lead.  Just kick the extra point and go up 8.  I know sometimes coaches have different philosophies, but I don't know anyone who can support that decision. Oh well,  there's no guarantee Houston would have covered either way. Baseball was a winner again on game 7.   Hopefully there will be some value on the World Series games to keep the hot streak going.   There's plenty of soccer during the week with the EPL today and the Champions League playing mid-week.   So the free plays this week will either be baseball or soccer as that's all that's on the schedule.  Tomorrow college football picks will be going out to members, so get signed-up now so you don't miss out on any early line value.  Monday is when money gets made on college football. EPL Wolverhampton +202 vs Leeds United

Free NFL Pick 10/18/20

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  Football was 5-6 yesterday.  Soccer and baseball were both winners yesterday.   A quick look at yesterday: Overall: 7 - 6, -0.09 units Time Pick Units Risked Units Won 10/17/20 5:37PM Houston Astros UNDER 8 -106 0.5 0.47 10/17/20 4:30PM [164] Missouri -18.5 -107 1.07 0 10/17/20 2:05PM North Texas OVER 68.5 -108 1.08 1 10/17/20 1:05PM [144] Mississippi State +4.5 -105 1.05 -1.05 10/17/20 12:40PM [149] Central Florida -2.5 -111 1.11 -1.11 10/17/20 12:35PM Duke OVER 59.5 -113 1.13 -1.13 10/17/20 12:35PM [120] NC State -5.5 -107 1.07 1 10/17/20 12:30PM [140] Arkansas +3 -109 1.09 1 10/17/20 9:00AM [113] Pittsburgh +10.5 -115 1.15 -1.15 10/17/20 9:00AM [133] Kentucky +6 -107 1.07 1 10/17/20 9:00AM [118] East Carolina +3 -110 1.1 -1.1 10/17/20 9:00AM Liberty OVER 53 -101 1.01 1 10/17/20 9:00AM [135] Texas State +3.5 -109 1.09 -1.09 10/17/20 7:00AM [2505] Southampton +1 +107 1 1.07 EPL West Ham vs Tottenham Under 3 -113 NFL Houston +3.5  +100 vs Tennessee 

Free Picks 10/17/20

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  Baseball was 1-1 on Thursday.  Nothing standing out on the overnights, but we are still waiting for Tampa to name a pitcher.  I might have a baseball play for members, but no free play for Friday. You can always review every pick on Pickmonitor, but here's a quick look at the last week in football. Football: 12 - 7, +4.17 units Time Pick Units Risked Units Won 10/17/20 4:30PM [164] Missouri -18.5 -107 1.07 0 10/14/20 4:30PM Coastal Carolina UNDER 59 -105 1.05 1 10/13/20 4:00PM [482] Tennessee Titans +3.5 -122 1.22 1 10/11/20 1:25PM Indianapolis Colts UNDER 47 -107 1.07 -1.07 10/11/20 1:25PM [474] Cleveland Browns -1 -109 1.09 1 10/11/20 1:05PM Miami Dolphins OVER 50.5 -104 1.04 1 10/11/20 10:00AM Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 52 -112 1.12 1 10/11/20 10:00AM [467] Cincinnati Bengals +13.5 -118 1.18 -1.18 10/11/20 10:00AM Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 -117 1.17 1 10/11/20 10:00AM Los Angeles Rams UNDER 46.5 -115 1.15 1 10/11/20 10:00AM Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 54 +102 1 1.02 10/10/20 5:

Free MLB Pick 10/15/20

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  A 2-0 day yesterday with one winner in football and one in baseball.  I emailed the football pick to all subscribers of this blog.  Both plays became valuable with line movement during the day, so neither play was available on the overnights.   Today we all are waiting for pitchers to be announced in the Tampa vs Houston game.  If Garcia goes for Houston, their season probably ends tonight.  Whether there's value or not will depend on the posted price. MLB Dodgers -207 (Kershaw) vs Atlanta (Wilson).   I know this isn't a sexy pick.  Nobody hates laying a big price more than I do, but there's nothing to like about Atlanta here.  Kershaw is one of the best ever, and Wilson is a rookie being thrown to the wolves.  He's made only a few starts and has an xFIP nearly 5.00.  What's the chance he cools off the Dodgers hot bats?  I think our only worry in this game is Kershaw's health.  

10/14/20

  Yesterday was a winning day in football with the Titans +3.5.   Baseball was 1-1 for a slight loss.   Tampa seems to catch every ball the Astros hit.  Some really spectacular catches almost every inning by a different player.  Meanwhile, Altuve can't throw a baseball 45 feet all of a sudden.  Maybe it's a little payback from the baseball gods?   Nothing standing out on the overnights.  I emailed the Titans pick to those who subscribe to this blog.  Just a thank you for subscribing.  I'll send a couple each week to you guys.  

10/13/20

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  Free Pick Record I put a link to a spreadsheet for the free pick record on the home page.  I've been asked constantly what the record is for the free picks, but I don't know.  The free pick is just one of the bets I've made that day, so the record of that one pick was never of interest to me.  All my picks are documented on Pickmonitor for anyone to see.  The free pick spreadsheet begins with October 1, 2020.  Football Betting Many of you wait until the weekend to buy football picks.  But it's early in the week where the money gets made on football.  Most of my bets are made between Monday and Thursday to get the best line available.  Members get these picks as soon as I place my bet, so they can get the best lines possible.  So not only do long-term members get the cheapest prices (about .25 cents/pick) but they also get the best lines, which gives them more profit.   For those of you that just want to buy one day's worth of picks, send me an email to let me know

Free MLB Pick 10/12/20

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  NFL was 6-2 yesterday.   Also baseball was a winner with the Rays.  As always, you can check the documented record at Pickmonitor, but here's a quick look at yesterday's games. Football: 6 - 2, +3.77 units Time Pick Units Risked Units Won 10/11/20 1:25PM Indianapolis Colts UNDER 47 -107 1.07 -1.07 10/11/20 1:25PM [474] Cleveland Browns -1 -109 1.09 1 10/11/20 1:05PM Miami Dolphins OVER 50.5 -104 1.04 1 10/11/20 10:00AM Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 52 -112 1.12 1 10/11/20 10:00AM [467] Cincinnati Bengals +13.5 -118 1.18 -1.18 10/11/20 10:00AM Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 -117 1.17 1 10/11/20 10:00AM Los Angeles Rams UNDER 46.5 -115 1.15 1 10/11/20 10:00AM Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 54 +102 1 1.02 MLB LA Dodgers -136 (Buehler) vs Atlanta (Fried)