EppleySports

Baseball red hot guys, check the spreadsheet above for all the results this year.  Also, we are just over a week away from the start of the EPL, so it's a great time to join and start experiencing what it's like to win with a real professional sports bettor.  MLB: NY Mets -160 (deGrom, xFIP 3.29)  vs White Sox (Giolito, xFIP 3.97).  Giolito had a few good starts and suddenly the public starts betting on him like he's a future Hall of Famer.  Well he's not.  He walks 9% of batters and his ground ball rate is only 38%.  Then he's been lucky with a BABIP .276, which will regress to .300 as it does for all pitchers.  We get deGrom, who actually is a future Hall of Famer, at a reduced price because of the public perception that Giolito is great and the Mets bullpen can't get anyone out. 

So you look through a list of handicappers and see a bunch of statistics, but which ones are based on skill and which ones are throwing darts and getting lucky?   The first thing you should look for is the number of non-correlated picks.  That means if there's a pick on the side, run-line, and first five innings of the same game, that counts as 1 pick, not 3 picks.  So the record might say 3-0, but you have to look through the record to determine how often there's correlated picks and subtract them out.  That gives you the real number of picks to compare to other handicappers.  I don't make correlated picks.  So now how many non-correlated picks is enough to identify skill?  Here's a little cheat sheet you can use.  For you math geeks, I know these aren't exact, but they are very close and easy to remember and use. A winning record with: 1000 picks.  About 10% chance record is based on luck. 2000 picks.  About 9% chance record is based on luck. 5000 picks. 

MLB: Washington -145 (Corbin, xFIP 3.64) vs Atlanta (Keuchel, xFIP 3.94).  A big series between the top 2 teams in the NL East.  Washington started the season 19-31, but are 37-18 since and only 5.5 games behind the Braves.  Keuchel is not the same pitcher he was with Houston.  His K:BB ratio is barely 2:1 which isn't very good.  Corbin's is over 4:1. 

Baseball continues to win.  Last 2 months have been sizzling hot.  Send an email to join and start making money. MLB NY Yankees (German, xFIP 4.01) vs Boston (Sale, xFIP 2.91) Under 10.5 -125.    German is very good, Sale is outstanding.  Both bullpens are also very good.  This total is inflated because of the juice ball stories and both line-ups have home-run hitters in a small Fenway Park.  But good pitching shuts down good hitting, it's been true since the 1800's.  Let's bet the game stays under the inflated total. 

If you're planning on joining me for the basketball season, signing-up now won't cost you any more money.  The cost will be the same now or in October.  You will get all other sports included.  So you will get baseball, soccer, football, and hockey included in the basketball price.  That's everything from now to June 2020.  Nobody else will make you money all year long.  Of the last 12 months, this July included, 8 months have been profitable, 2 months even, and only 2 losing months (a -5 unit month, and a -12 unit month).   All total about 80 units of profit.  All documented on Pickmonitor.com.  Keep in mind I bet 1 unit per game or less, so there's no 5 unit games or 2 unit games.  And then consider the record doesn't include soccer or hockey, which were also extremely profitable.  You can review the spreadsheets above.  I will be including all sports this year.  So come join the only guy on Pickmonitor with over 4K picks and over 1% ROI.   There's nobody

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.58  Colorado Rockies +115  vs Cincinnati Reds Risked 0.67 units to win 0.52  New York Yankees -130  vs Boston Red Sox Risked 0.67 units to win 0.39  New York Mets -174  vs Pittsburgh Pirates Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 10 -111  vs Chicago White Sox Risked 0.67 units to win 0.7  St. Louis Cardinals +104  vs Houston Astros Risked 1 unit to win 0.47  LAA Angels -213  vs Baltimore Orioles Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  Texas Rangers +100  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 9 -111  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.5 units to win 0.34  San Diego Padres -148  vs San Francisco Giants Risked 0.33 units to win 0.4  Detroit Tigers +120  vs Seattle Mariners These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

MLB: Cleveland -135 (Plutko, xFIP 5.61) vs Kansas City (Montgomery, xFIP 4.82).  Montgomery is awful.  With the Cubs and Royals this year his K:BB ratio is less than 2:1.  In AAA this year his xFIP 5.08.  Not sure why the Cubs brought him up from AAA, but it's obvious why they shipped him to KC.  Indians should be -185, so let's take this great price with the better team and better pitcher.

Anyone planning to sign-up for basketball can do so at any time.  The season price will be the same regardless of when you sign-up.  As soon as you do, you will get all sports included for the season price.  Monthly package is always available for the 30 days starting when you sign-up. Now to what everyone wants, the free play: MLB Oakland (Bassitt, xFIP 4.91) vs Houston (Verlander, xFIP 3.63) Under 8.5 -110.   Bassitt is an average pitcher, but Verlander is one of the best with a ridiculous 7:1 K:BB ratio.  Oakland has an above average bullpen so we should be alright once Bassitt leaves the game.  Houston has one of the best bullpens, but I don't think it will be needed much.  Overall there will be some good pitchers in this game, so let's take the Under. 

For those serious about making money, this is a rare service for those wanting to get the best lines and match my exact record.  This isn't for everyone.  If you're new to sports betting or think a hundred bucks is a big bet, then this isn't for you.  If you have a real bankroll and you know the value of a half point, then this might interest you.  Here's how it will work.  You will send the money to me and I will bet for you.  Of course you will get receipts and documentation for your deposit.  You can also have whatever other documents that make you comfortable.  I will maintain a spreadsheet with all the picks and lines for everyone to see.  The amounts will be entered as units, so everyone will know what a unit represents to them and they can calculate their balance whenever they want.  Each day I will send an email before the games begin, letting everyone know the teams and lines we have.  You will have the same lines as me.  You will be able to check the games

I've put links to the soccer and NHL picks for those asking to review them.  You will notice many columns are hidden.  It's because these are my personal spreadsheets that have dollar amounts in them.  For a variety of reasons, I don't wish to make the amounts public.  You will also notice I keep spreadsheets by calendar year, not by when a sports season begins.  This is done for tax purposes. What you are able to see is each game bet, the line I bet it at, whether the game won or lost, and a season running ROI.  The line listed is an American money-line, not a decimal.  So 2.00 is not even money, it is +200.  I enter it as 2.00 for formulas in other columns.  For the NHL I added a column with the equivalent decimal odds to clarify this. I will enter soccer picks on Pickmonitor next month when the EPL begins.  I will also enter NHL picks starting this upcoming season. Once the soccer season begins, I will have to remove the spreadsheet link because I will obviously be

Baseball on a 13-5 run the last few days with the Washington game still pending as I write this.  Pickmonitor is still grading games with pitching changes incorrectly, so be sure to check the baseball spreadsheet for accurate records. MLB: NY Yankees -110 (Sabathia, xFIP 4.78) vs Minnesota (Perez, xFIP 4.35).  Perez has a K:BB ratio of 2:1 which isn't very good.  He walks 9.5% of batters, which is way too many.  With all those runners on base, the Yankees home runs will be 3-run shots instead of solo shots. 

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.33 units to win 0.61  Baltimore Orioles +186  vs Boston Red Sox Risked 1 unit to win 0.39  Tampa Bay Rays -256  vs Chicago White Sox Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  UNDER 8 -106  vs Tampa Bay Rays Risked 1 unit to win 0.45  Cleveland Indians -221  vs Kansas City Royals Risked 0.5 units to win 0.43  UNDER 9.5 -116  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.5 units to win 0.85  San Diego Padres +169  vs Chicago Cubs Risked 0.67 units to win 0.39  LAA Angels -170  vs Seattle Mariners These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

With Tiger missing the cut, all the Tiger fades are winners without having to worry about the next 2 days of play.                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Risked 0.5 units to win 0.57  San Diego Padres +113  vs Chicago Cubs Risked 0.5 units to win 0.57  New York Mets +113  vs San Francisco Giants Risked 0.5 unit to win 0.52  OVER 9 +104  vs San Francisco Giants Risked 0.5 units to win 0.36  Minnesota Twins -138  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.67 units to win 0.92  Washington Nationals +138  vs Atlanta Braves These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor UFC: Gabriel Silva +140 vs Ray Borg James Vick +110 vs Dan Hooker 

My Tracked Plays Risked 1.25 units to win 0.44  Cleveland Indians -281  vs Kansas City Royals Risked 0.5 units to win 0.34  Toronto Blue Jays -147  vs Detroit Tigers Risked 1 unit to win 0.83  Washington Nationals -120  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  UNDER 8.5 -107  vs Houston Astros Risked 1.5 units to win 0.56  Los Angeles Dodgers -270  vs Miami Marlins These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

MLB: Washington -130 (Strasburg, xFIP 3.16) vs Atlanta (Teheran, xFIP 5.27).  Strasburg is one of the best in baseball, while Teheran is one of the worst with a K:BB ratio of less than 2:1.  He walks over 11% of hitters and doesn't get many ground ball outs.  So lots of guys on base and lots of fly balls should equal a big day offensively for Washington. Open Championship: Will Tiger Woods finish in top 20 NO -155 Any player  matchups against Tiger are good, just fade Tiger in any way you can.

Another extra inning loss with the Reds yesterday.  The free picks are doing very well, but the last 3 losses have been in the 9th inning or later.  Pickmonitor seems to have fixed the grading issue, but the spreadsheet is still the most accurate documentation of the entire year. MLB White Sox +112 (Nova, xFIP 4.75) vs Kansas City (Duffy, xFIP 5.27).  Yeah these are both bad teams, but Duffy is an outhouse explosion when he steps on the mound.  He walks over 9% of batters, has a K:BB ratio barely 2:1, and GB 37%.  So lots of runners on base and lots of balls put in play, most of which are fly balls.  Let's take the plus money underdog against this guy.

Pickmonitor is a mess right now with virtually every game yesterday being voided.  Hopefully it will get fixed soon.  Remember to check the baseball spreadsheet in the link about to get accurate year-to-date record for this year's baseball season. MLB Cincinnati +120 (DeSclafani, xFIP 4.44) vs Cubs (Mills, AAA xFIP 5.38).  Cubs obviously hurting for pitching by bringing up a guy with an xFIP over 5.00 in AAA.   Mills made 14 starts this year in AAA with a WHIP 1.39 and 39% GB (Ground Balls).  So he let's lots of guys get on base and gives up lots of fly balls.  So bring him up to pitch in Wrigley Field against a Reds team that's been pounding the baseball lately.  I don't see how this goes well for him. 

Monday baseball: MLB Cleveland -165 (Plutko, xFIP 5.08) vs Detroit (Norris, xFIP 4.63).  At first glance, neither of these pitchers appears to be very good.  But Plutko has a K:BB ratio of nearly 7:1 which is outstanding.  The Tigers will have to hit their way on base because Plutko isn't going to walk them, and we know the Tigers don't hit very well.  Then there's the Tigers horrid bullpen.  How bad are they?  The Tigers have used 26 pitchers this season.  When factoring out the starters and focusing on guys used primarily out of the bullpen who have appeared in at least 5 games, they have exactly 2 guys with an xFIP under 4.00 (Greene and Farmer).   Yikes, that's worse than the Mets bullpen.  It's a big price, but let's lay the wood with the Indians. 

A Sunday afternoon game and another at night. MLB Washington -105 (A. Sanchez, xFIP 4.88) vs Philadelphia (Arrieta, xFIP 4.53).  Both pitchers are nearly identical in xFIP and K:BB ratio of 2:1.  But Washington is 30-11 in their last 41 games after starting the season 19-31.  I've been on them nearly every day during this streak.  At such a cheap price for the hottest team in baseball, no reason to jump off the train now.  LA Dodgers -105  (Ryu, xFIP 3.10) vs Boston (Price, xFIP 3.57).  Ryu has a ridiculous K:BB ratio of 9:1.  Price is a good pitcher, but Ryu has been outstanding all year.  To get a Cy Young candidate and the best team is baseball at this price is too good to pass up.

MLB San Francisco +110 (Bumgarner, xFIP 3.99) vs Milwaukee (Davies xFIP 5.00).  Bumgarner has a K:BB ratio of 5:1, and Davies has a 2:1.  Davies remains one of the public favorites, but the guy is awful.  The Brewers also remain a public darling, which makes them over-priced nearly every day.  I've mentioned before about the NL Central teams all being average at best.  Combine all of this and it gives us the wrong team favored here.  We get the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and the better team with an underdog price.  UFC Liu Pingyuan -145 vs Jonathan Martinez. Germaine de Randamie +130 vs Aspen Ladd

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.37  Washington Nationals -136  vs Philadelphia Phillies Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  UNDER 9.5 -106  vs Philadelphia Phillies Risked 0.5 units to win 0.46  UNDER 8 -109  vs Miami Marlins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 9.5 -110  vs Oakland Athletics These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

I originally wrote this in the forum on Pickmonitor.  Guys think betting against someone who loses means they will win, but that's not the case. Jul 7th, 2019 at 2:04pm Posts In basketball and football against-the-spread or total bets with standard -110 lines, the ROI for 50% is -4.3%. So fading a 50% handicapper would also give you a -4.3% ROI. The point to understand here is that a negative ROI doesn't mean fading those picks would produce a positive ROI. At -110, a winning percentage of 52.5% is a 0.23% ROI. The very opposite winning percentage of 47.5% is a -9.3% ROI. Nearly all bettors, 99% of them, will fall between 47.5% and 52.5% in the long run. Finding someone below 47.5% or below -9.3% ROI is as rare as finding someone with a winning record. One last thing. Even if you found a guy with a 45% winning percentage with 1000 picks, he's still likely to win between 47.5% and 52.5% of his next 1000 picks so fading him would still be a bad idea. While

At the All-Star break, baseball is down -3.8 units, -0.91% ROI.  The Unders have been terrific at 139-119, 53.9%.  The sides have dragged down the overall record.  The season win totals look to be on pace for another profitable year, and added together with the season record it looks to be a profitable year overall.  I do expect the rest of the season to be very good.  Click on the baseball link above for a complete list of every game bet this year. EPL / NHL Every Friday I'll still post picks here for free until the end of August.   The EPL starts in August so I may put those picks on Pickmonitor.  I haven't decided on how to offer them yet, so look for an announcement in the first week of August.  I also may put the NHL picks on Pickmonitor starting in October.  Of course football and basketball will still be on there.  I'm considering one all-inclusive price for everything, but don't worry it won't be expensive.  I really do want you guys to experience what i

Pickmonitor isn't working, there are no MLB lines up for Friday's games. Here are the games I've bet Friday: MLB Philadelphia vs NY Mets Under 8 -110 Miami +180 vs Atlanta San Diego vs LA Dodgers Under 8.5 -110 St Louis vs San Francisco Over 8.5 -105 NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Under 8.5 -105 LA Angels vs Houston Under 9 -120 Pitching Change Texas vs Minnesota Under 10.5 -115 Pitching Change  Update after pitching changes: Texas +155 vs Minnesota Angels vs Houston Under 9 -110 Pickmonitor finally working, here's the same games as above: My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  UNDER 8.5 +106  vs Tampa Bay Rays Risked 0.67 units to win 0.59  UNDER 8.5 -113  vs New York Mets Risked 0.5 units to win 0.86  Miami Marlins +172  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 10 +100  vs Minnesota Twins Pitching Change Risked 0.5 units to win 0.43  UNDER 9 -117  vs Houston Astros Pitching Change Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 9 -110  vs Houston As