Fees / Betting Fund / Line Movement
At the All-Star break, baseball is down -3.8 units, -0.91% ROI. The Unders have been terrific at 139-119, 53.9%. The sides have dragged down the overall record. The season win totals look to be on pace for another profitable year, and added together with the season record it looks to be a profitable year overall. I do expect the rest of the season to be very good. Click on the baseball link above for a complete list of every game bet this year.
EPL / NHL
Every Friday I'll still post picks here for free until the end of August. The EPL starts in August so I may put those picks on Pickmonitor. I haven't decided on how to offer them yet, so look for an announcement in the first week of August. I also may put the NHL picks on Pickmonitor starting in October. Of course football and basketball will still be on there. I'm considering one all-inclusive price for everything, but don't worry it won't be expensive. I really do want you guys to experience what it's like to win.
Your Input on Pricing and Betting Fund
All of you that were with me last season for basketball got a taste of winning. You will get the best price for returning again this year. I'd be interested to know what you think the price should be for the season? What should it be for new clients? Let me know your thoughts.
I'd also like your input on an idea that a client asked me about. Since the basketball lines do move fast after I bet, he asked if clients could deposit money with me and I make the bets for everyone. Of course everyone would get receipts and documentation for their transactions. Each day I would send out an email letting everyone know the games and the lines our money is on. Everyone would have the same line as me. I'd keep a public spreadsheet documenting the record for everyone to check daily. Depending on the amount of your deposit, you will be able to calculate how much of the money is yours. Rather than charging an up-front fee, each client would pay 10% of winnings payable when withdrawing your money. So if you profit 1K, you get 900. A consideration is overnight limits are pretty low, so I'd have to limit the number of clients and deposit money so that the maximum bet isn't greater than 4K, not including my own bet. Anyway, it's a pretty interesting idea, something I've never heard of before and wanted you guys to give some input on it.
Line Movement
Concerning line movement: A lot goes into when a line moves, it's never just one person or one bet. Generally Bookmaker and Pinnacle lead the way and all other books copy and paste with some shading for local teams. Sharps (bettors that books respect) will normally be on the same side of a particular game. This makes sense as winning math models should mirror each other. If a line is sitting at +3 and sharps know it's a wrong number, it's eventually going to get bet hard. But sharps want +3.5 so they wait and hope the public drives it up. But if one of those sharps sees something that indicates the number might move down, he's going to pull the trigger on +3. The book will respect that bet and the line will start to move, which will cause all the other sharp money to grab what's left of the +3's and the +2.5's. This is known as steam.
Now steam itself is not a bad word. What's bad is steam chasers. This is when the public sees the big line move from +3 to +1.5 at all books within a matter of minutes. So John Q Public jumps on board and bets the +1.5 along with hundreds of other square bettors. This causes a line move to +1. Notice the sharps have +3 or +2.5 and the squares have +1.5 and +1. So when people say "oh that guy bets steam," they are the proverbial know-just-enough-to-be-dangerous fool. They learned steam chasing is bad, so they have a negative connotation of the word steam.
Who to Follow
Finally, when choosing to buy picks from someone, the line better move the way he bets or you're following a loser. Guys will buy picks from someone and be able to get the same line hours after the handicapper sends out the pick. Either the guy you're following doesn't bet the games he sends out or he is a long term loser. So yeah, you can get the same line and lose right along with him.
EPL / NHL
Every Friday I'll still post picks here for free until the end of August. The EPL starts in August so I may put those picks on Pickmonitor. I haven't decided on how to offer them yet, so look for an announcement in the first week of August. I also may put the NHL picks on Pickmonitor starting in October. Of course football and basketball will still be on there. I'm considering one all-inclusive price for everything, but don't worry it won't be expensive. I really do want you guys to experience what it's like to win.
Your Input on Pricing and Betting Fund
All of you that were with me last season for basketball got a taste of winning. You will get the best price for returning again this year. I'd be interested to know what you think the price should be for the season? What should it be for new clients? Let me know your thoughts.
I'd also like your input on an idea that a client asked me about. Since the basketball lines do move fast after I bet, he asked if clients could deposit money with me and I make the bets for everyone. Of course everyone would get receipts and documentation for their transactions. Each day I would send out an email letting everyone know the games and the lines our money is on. Everyone would have the same line as me. I'd keep a public spreadsheet documenting the record for everyone to check daily. Depending on the amount of your deposit, you will be able to calculate how much of the money is yours. Rather than charging an up-front fee, each client would pay 10% of winnings payable when withdrawing your money. So if you profit 1K, you get 900. A consideration is overnight limits are pretty low, so I'd have to limit the number of clients and deposit money so that the maximum bet isn't greater than 4K, not including my own bet. Anyway, it's a pretty interesting idea, something I've never heard of before and wanted you guys to give some input on it.
Line Movement
Concerning line movement: A lot goes into when a line moves, it's never just one person or one bet. Generally Bookmaker and Pinnacle lead the way and all other books copy and paste with some shading for local teams. Sharps (bettors that books respect) will normally be on the same side of a particular game. This makes sense as winning math models should mirror each other. If a line is sitting at +3 and sharps know it's a wrong number, it's eventually going to get bet hard. But sharps want +3.5 so they wait and hope the public drives it up. But if one of those sharps sees something that indicates the number might move down, he's going to pull the trigger on +3. The book will respect that bet and the line will start to move, which will cause all the other sharp money to grab what's left of the +3's and the +2.5's. This is known as steam.
Now steam itself is not a bad word. What's bad is steam chasers. This is when the public sees the big line move from +3 to +1.5 at all books within a matter of minutes. So John Q Public jumps on board and bets the +1.5 along with hundreds of other square bettors. This causes a line move to +1. Notice the sharps have +3 or +2.5 and the squares have +1.5 and +1. So when people say "oh that guy bets steam," they are the proverbial know-just-enough-to-be-dangerous fool. They learned steam chasing is bad, so they have a negative connotation of the word steam.
Who to Follow
Finally, when choosing to buy picks from someone, the line better move the way he bets or you're following a loser. Guys will buy picks from someone and be able to get the same line hours after the handicapper sends out the pick. Either the guy you're following doesn't bet the games he sends out or he is a long term loser. So yeah, you can get the same line and lose right along with him.
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