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Showing posts from August, 2019

Free Picks 9/1/19

For whatever reason, Sunday seems to bring the most viewers here.  Maybe everyone has the day off and wants to spend the day watching and betting on sports, or maybe Saturday was a bad day and you're looking for some games to bail you out of the hole.  That's a scary way to bet by the way, which is why I'll help you with money management when you become a member.   Just send an email to get on the winning path.  Well I know the winners from yesterday are going to try and double-up and the losers are going to try to get even, so I better give out some winning picks.  EPL: Everton +125 vs Wolverhampton.   Wolverhampton has the 19th rated attack, only Newcastle is worse.  Everton has the 2nd best defense, only Man City is better.   It's hard to see Wolverhampton scoring in this match.  Everton at home need to get only one goal to get all 3 points.  Expected goals are 1.61 for Everton and 0.58 for the Wolves.  MLB: Colorado +100 (Hoffman, xFIP 5.19) vs Pittsburgh (B

Free Picks 8/31/19

Well there's about 30 new people who visited here yesterday.  I guess I should thank that fool evo for driving traffic to me.  Last year he did the same thing behind the scenes, which is why I was not going to continue selling picks any longer.  But Michael, owner of Pickmonitor, shut evo down and deleted his rambling nonsense.  Then many of you who were with me last year sent emails and messages encouraging me to continue this year.  Thanks for those, and thanks for returning. Ok, a busy Saturday, let's make it a good one. UFC: Andre Soukhamthath -170 vs Su Mudaerji EPL: Sheffield United +1.5 -135 vs Chelsea.  MLB: NY Yankees -160 (German, xFIP 4.10) vs Oakland (Bailey, xFIP 4.53).  NCAA: Akron vs Illinois Over 61 

College Football 8/29/19

College football starts today, or did it start last week.  Depends who you ask.  Anyway, it's the first day with a bunch of games and I know everyone is excited.    I did bet some games this weekend, but none on Thursday offer enough value. Maybe there will be some line movement to get me involved tomorrow, but  just because they schedule the games doesn't mean you're required to bet.  Ok, I know some of you just shook your head at that last paragraph.  It's college football Eppley!  Of course we have to bet! Well if you absolutely have to bet something, I'd suggest Clemson -36 to kill Georgia Tech.  Obviously Clemson will win the game easily, so the question is by how many.  Recall GT's previous coach ran an option offense, so he recruited players to fit that style of play.  The new coach wants to throw the ball with a more modern style of offense.   But the option players are still on the team, so how well are they going to fit into this entirely differen

Free Pick 8/27/19

College football and NFL season win totals and futures are ready.   Send an email to become a member and get them today. Baseball continues to win even with another 9th inning loss yesterday.  Check spreadsheet above for every bet this year.  College Football: Nebraska over 8.5 wins -135.  NFL: Cleveland under 9 wins +100.  

Free Pick 8/25/19

An extraordinary day yesterday with 5 of the 6 home teams losing in the EPL, not even a draw for any of the home sides.  Another extraordinary statistic is the Washington Nationals have led in the 8th inning or later in 18 consecutive games, and have led or been tied in the 7th or later in 56 of their last 60 games.   Imagine if they had a reliable bullpen. Ok I know, let's get back in the win column with the free picks. EPL: Newcastle vs Tottenham Under 3 -120.  Expected goals is 2.59.  Most likely scoreline is 2-0 Tottenham. MLB: NY Yankees  +155 (German, xFIP 4.02) vs LA Dodgers (Kershaw, xFIP 3.52) Under 8.5 -105.   At +155 the Yankees are priced at 39.2% to win, but I have them winning this game 47% of the time.  The only real advantage the Dodgers have is they are at home, so let's take the nice plus money price on a great team with a great pitcher.  Let's also take the Under with 2 great pitchers in a big ballpark. 

Free Pick 8/24/19

Saturday morning soccer. EPL: Sheffield United vs Leicester City.   Both teams have very good defense and weak attacks, but Sheffield ranks slightly better at both.  And they are at home, which is significant in the EPL as blindly betting every home team the last 10 years has produced a profit.   Expected goals is 1.38 for Sheffield and 1.07 for Leicester.  Sheffield has a 46% to win and 29% to draw.  There's a variety ways to bet this game, but I took +0.5 goals at -140.  On Pickmonitor the only option was +0.25 -101.  You could also take Sheffield at a pk (draw pushes)  and plus money or bet them at +245 to win  (draw loses).  All are good bets, but I'd prefer to win if it ends in a draw. 

Free Friday 8/23/19

Another free Friday for everyone. My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.55  Washington Nationals +110  vs Chicago Cubs Risked 0.5 units to win 0.51  UNDER 7.5 +101  vs New York Mets Risked 0.5 units to win 0.44  UNDER 9.5 -114  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.5 units to win 0.46  UNDER 8.5 -108  vs San Diego Padres Risked 0.5 units to win 0.52  San Diego Padres +103  vs Boston Red Sox Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 8.5 -101  vs Los Angeles Dodgers These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Playoff Bullpens / Free Pick 8/22/19

Well the late inning heroics bit us again with the Indians scoring in the 10th and then giving up 2 in the bottom of the 10th, and the Giants blowing one lead after another including the lead in the 8th.   I guess we shouldn't complain as we are still ahead for the year.  See the spreadsheet above. With all the blown leads in late innings this year, I think we are going to see starting pitchers used out of the bullpen in playoff games.  Most playoff teams only use 4 starters, so the 5th starter and the spot starters used during the regular season will be available in the bullpen.  Then situations where the starter from 2 days ago will be used for an inning as that would normally be his throwing day.  It's just something to keep in mind for bullpen ratings in October. Well that's a month away Eppley, I need a winner today. MLB: NY Yankees -110 (Tanaka, xFIP 4.45) vs Oakland (Roark, xFIP 4.56).  Tanaka is above average with a K:BB ratio over 3:1 and a 47 GB%.  Roark is

Skeptical of Touts? / Free Pick 8/20/19

College football is about a week away.  Members will get an email with season win totals, which are normally very strong and profitable bets.  So send an email to become a member and don't miss anymore winners.  Nobody else is going to make you money in the long-term, so come join a proven winner.  I don't charge anywhere near what the shady touting services do, and unlike them I actually win. Are you interested but skeptical because you've been ripped off by one of these services who charged you thousands and promised the stars and the moon?  Then after losing a fortune, they wanted you to "upgrade" to a level where the picks are better?  Maybe they just disappeared altogether after a season full of losers?  Well let me help.  Send me proof of paying one of these thieves and an explanation of what happened, and I will give you 2 months of picks for free.  That will help you get back some of your losses, and it will give you confidence in me.  I know you will be

Free Pick 8/18/19

Baseball continues to stay hot with another winning day yesterday.  Also, the free picks win again and stay above 60% since the start of this blog back in March.  It's easy to become a member, just send an email and get started with the only long-term winner you're going to find.  I won't charge you thousands like the hype machines who hope to get lucky for a while.  I don't need to because I actually win a lot of money betting the same games I give to you guys.  Yeah, I know, just get to the free winners already: MLB: NY Mets (Wheeler, xFIP 3.88) vs Kansas City (Sparkman, xFIP 5.55) Under 10 -115.  Ron Kulpa working the plate, one of the best Under umpires. EPL: Crystal Palace +200 vs Sheffield United.   Promoted teams generally have a hard time scoring goals against the higher quality competition in the EPL.  Sheffield has the lowest rated attack and will struggle to score all year.  They also have a terrible defense  rated 18th.  Obviously not a good combin

Free Pick 8/17/19

Another winning day in baseball yesterday, check the whole year's results in the spreadsheet link above.   A busy Saturday with EPL, MLB, and preseason NFL. MLB: Dodgers (Ryu, xFIP 3.32) vs Atlanta (Foltynewicz, xFIP 5.06) Under 9.5  +100. EPL: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Over 2.5  -130.    Both defenses are awful with Aston Villa rated 20th and Bournemouth 17th.   The attack of Bournemouth is decent, while Aston's ranks pretty low.  But obviously playing against bad defenses should help both clubs move the ball.  The expected goals in this match is 3.4, so we will take the Over.

Free Friday 8/16/19

Another free Friday for everyone. My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  UNDER 9 +105  vs Philadelphia Phillies Risked 0.5 units to win 0.34  Washington Nationals -148  vs Milwaukee Brewers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  UNDER 9 -107  vs Pittsburgh Pirates Risked 0.5 units to win 0.6  Pittsburgh Pirates +119  vs Chicago Cubs Risked 0.5 units to win 0.49  UNDER 8 -103  vs Tampa Bay Rays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.28  Colorado Rockies -181  vs Miami Marlins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.27  Houston Astros -183  vs Oakland Athletics These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Free Pick 8/15/19

A short baseball card on Thursday, but things will start getting pretty busy with soccer just started and football getting ready.  MLB: NY Mets +110 (Stroman, xFIP 4.02) vs Atlanta (Teheran, xFIP 5.20).  Subscribers and regular readers probably know how bad Teheran is because we bet against him often.  A xFIP over 5.00, a K:BB ratio barely 2:1, and he walks 11% of hitters.  Stroman is one of my favorites with a low xFIP, a K:BB ratio 3:1, and a GB 55% which is top 3 in all of baseball.  I know Atlanta has been extremely lucky, but there's no way to quantify that.  The Braves bullpen is so horrid that only the Rockies bullpen has given up more runs since the all-star break.  And the Braves lead the league in runs scored in the 8th and 9th innings, which is a statistic usually reserved for bad teams because good teams don't bat in the 9th very often.  The Braves are the most over-rated team in baseball and I still believe they will fade down the stretch. 

Soccer Handicapping / Free Pick 8/13/19

Expected goals is a calculation based on scoring chances, which identifies the angle and speed of the shot and the positions of the defenders plus the chance the goalkeeper had of making a save.  There are other variables, but identifying which team has the highest degree of expected goals has a statistical correlation to which team will win the game.   Obviously if a team has a higher expected goals and they are a plus money underdog, there is long-term value in betting these teams.  There's a price comparison that identifies such value that is too lengthy to explain here.  I just wanted to give you a quick peek at my philosophy of handicapping soccer games. Of course there will be games where the team that graded the best in expected goals (EG) doesn't win the game.  In the first week of the EPL, we somehow lost 3 of these games.  Bournemouth won EG 1.7 - 1.43, Southampton won EG 1.19 - 1.01, and Everton won EG 1.32 - 0.87 with 10 men.  I know it sucks to lose, but these ar

Free Pick 8/11/19

Some late goals took a couple wins away yesterday.  Reminds me of how the baseball season started with all the 9th inning heroics going against us.  But baseball eventually turned around and is now showing a profit for the year.  Soccer will too.  Don't panic, it's a long season. On the bright side, the free picks went 2-1 for another winning day yesterday. Premier League: Arsenal vs Newcastle United Over 2.5 -125. 

Free Picks 8/10/19

A busy Saturday with the EPL and MLB plays, so send an email if you'd like to get started. Here's some free picks to get you through the day and make some money. EPL: Bournemouth +100 vs Sheffield United.  MLB: Cincinnati -105 (Gray, xFIP 3.57) vs Cubs (Hendricks, xFIP 4.31) UFC: Volkan Oezdemir -160 vs Ilir Latfi

Free Friday 8/9/19

The Premier League starts this weekend and picks have already been entered, so come join me to make long-term money.  One price for all sports from now to the end of basketball, or pay monthly if you prefer. Friday: My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 8 -112  vs New York Mets Risked 1.07 units to win 1  Minnesota Vikings +2.5 -107  vs New Orleans Saints Risked 0.5 units to win 0.4  Cleveland Indians -126  vs Minnesota Twins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.62  Pittsburgh Pirates +124  vs St. Louis Cardinals Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  Philadelphia Phillies -107  vs San Francisco Giants These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Free Picks 8/8/19

Not a lot of value on the baseball card today.  Here's what I did bet on the overnights. MLB: My Tracked Plays Risked 0.33 units to win 0.57  Miami Marlins +174  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 1 unit to win 0.42  Boston Red Sox -236  vs LAA Angels Risked 0.5 units to win 0.52  OVER 7.5 +104  vs San Francisco Giants These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Free Pick 8/7/19

A winning day again in baseball thanks to some underdog prices.  But a rare loss for the free pick yesterday, so let's try to get back in the win column today. MLB: St Louis (Flaherty, xFIP 3.91) vs LA Dodgers (May, xFIP 3.54) Under 8.5 -105.  Flaherty is as solid as they come.  A low xFIP and a K:BB ratio of about 3.5:1.  May is making his second start.  His first start he pitched 5 innings and didn't walk anyone.  In AA and AAA this year he walked less than 3% of hitters, so he's a guy who throws strikes.  Now the key to this play is the home plate umpire, who is the best Under umpire in the league.  He loves to call strikes, and we have 2 pitchers who love to throw strikes.  A perfect marriage - well it's a 3 person marriage I guess, but you get the point.

Free Pick 8/6/19

Baseball immediately bounces back from yesterday and continues the overall upward trend.  Check the yearly results in the spreadsheet above. If you're going to bet on games, you might as well join someone who does it for a living.  You won't find anyone better at making long-term profit.  The best part is it's not expensive to join because I make money betting, not selling.  You will likely make the cost of a subscription back in the first few days of betting.  Oh I better get to the free winner, I can hear the rumblings.  Over 65% winners on the free picks since March by the way. MLB: Colorado (Marquez, xFIP 3.52) vs Houston (Greinke, xFIP 3.73) Under 8.5 -105.   Marquez has a K:BB ratio of 5:1 and Greinke has a 8:1.  These guys don't walk anybody, especially Greinke who has walked less than 2% of hitters the last 2 years.  That's amazing.   Houston has a great bullpen if it's needed, but we do need Marquez to go deep into the game to avoid some of the s

Free Pick 8/5/19

Baseball has cooled slightly but obviously there was no way to maintain that pace.  Overall we're still looking good for the year.  The EPL starts this weekend so look for some picks coming sometime this week.  There's hundreds of you reading this daily so come join me for the season, or join for a month if you'd like.  I'll also give any potential new member a free week just to see if it's something you like.  It's not expensive to join. I know, I know, get to the free winner. MLB: Philadelphia -105 (Velasquez, xFIP 4.54) vs Arizona (Kelly, xFIP 4.68).  Both pitchers with similar numbers, but Velasquez has a higher upside than Kelly.  Philly also has a much better offense than Arizona.  So Philly should have an easier time hitting Kelly than Arizona will have hitting Velasquez.  Plus when the game gets to the bullpens, Bradley won't be available for Arizona after pitching 2 innings yesterday.  That gives Philly an advantage late in the game. 

A Free Day 8/4/19

Baseball streak ended yesterday with 2 losses in extra innings.  Here's a surprise free day for everyone.  Happy Sunday. MLB: My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.48  Cincinnati Reds -104  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 0.5 units to win 0.6  Pittsburgh Pirates +119  vs New York Mets Risked 0.5 units to win 0.54  St. Louis Cardinals +107  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.5 units to win 0.67  San Diego Padres +134  vs Los Angeles Dodgers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 8.5 -110  vs Los Angeles Dodgers These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Free Pick 8/3/19

Baseball hot streak has turned into a wild fire burning out-of-control.  And there's no water in sight.  27-9 last 5 days, 8 of last 9 days have won, and YTD record is showing a nice profit.  Check all results in the spreadsheet above. No better time to join than right now.  Build your bankroll as we approach the basketball season.  The EPL starts next week, which is normally very profitable.  Check the spreadsheet above.  Then football starts next month, and NHL will start 6 weeks after that.  You will get all of this included with the basketball season by joining now.  Same low price for everything. C'mon Eppley I need another one of those free winners.  Free picks have won 5 consecutive days, and are winning  over 65% since I've started this blog back in March. MLB: Cincinnati +120 (Bauer, xFIP 4.28) vs Atlanta (Keuchel, xFIP 4.08).  Many of you know I've been fading Keuchel most of the year.  He's not nearly the same pitcher he was with Houston.  His K:BB

Free Friday 8/2/19

Baseball remains scorching hot, 23-7 last 4 days.  Check the whole year in the spreadsheet above. Friday's card doesn't have much value on it, but here's what I bet on the overnights.  Might be more in the morning. My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.42  New York Yankees -119  vs Boston Red Sox Risked 0.5 units to win 0.63  Cincinnati Reds +125  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 0.33 units to win 0.74  Seattle Mariners +224  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.33 units to win 0.54  San Diego Padres +165  vs Los Angeles Dodgers These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Free Pick 8/1/19

Baseball is on a scorching run of 19-4 the last few days.  For the year baseball is over 1% ROI, check the spreadsheet above for a list of every game this year.  Anyone just betting the free plays on here would have already made enough money to cover the cost of the entire basketball season.   Come join the only proven long-term winner you're going to find.  It's not expensive to join because I make money betting, not selling picks.  MLB: Tampa Bay +115 (McKay, xFIP 3.86) vs Boston (Cashner, xFIP 4.85).  In 4 games with the Rays, McKay has a K:BB ratio 23:1.  Prior to that, McKay had a 4:1 ratio with a 3.90 xFIP in AAA and a 6:1 ratio with a 1.77 xFIP in AA.   The kid just doesn't walk anyone.  We're getting plus money here because the public doesn't know who McKay is yet.