Soccer Handicapping / Free Pick 8/13/19
Expected goals is a calculation based on scoring chances, which identifies the angle and speed of the shot and the positions of the defenders plus the chance the goalkeeper had of making a save. There are other variables, but identifying which team has the highest degree of expected goals has a statistical correlation to which team will win the game. Obviously if a team has a higher expected goals and they are a plus money underdog, there is long-term value in betting these teams. There's a price comparison that identifies such value that is too lengthy to explain here. I just wanted to give you a quick peek at my philosophy of handicapping soccer games.
Of course there will be games where the team that graded the best in expected goals (EG) doesn't win the game. In the first week of the EPL, we somehow lost 3 of these games. Bournemouth won EG 1.7 - 1.43, Southampton won EG 1.19 - 1.01, and Everton won EG 1.32 - 0.87 with 10 men. I know it sucks to lose, but these are bets I would make again if these matches were played again this weekend. Aston Villa tied 1-1 at about 85 minutes but managed to lose 3-1 was also a tough loss on the Asian handicap.
Ok, I know half of you just scanned down to here for the free pick:
MLB:
St Louis -190 (Flaherty, xFIP 3.85) vs Kansas City (Sparkman, xFIP 5.57). Sparkman is awful and the Royals are awful, I'm sure everyone knows that. But Flaherty has been outstanding, he strikes out nearly 30% of hitters. He's been even better than outstanding his last few starts. I know it's a big price, but this is a rare instance where it's worth laying the wood on the Cardinals.
Of course there will be games where the team that graded the best in expected goals (EG) doesn't win the game. In the first week of the EPL, we somehow lost 3 of these games. Bournemouth won EG 1.7 - 1.43, Southampton won EG 1.19 - 1.01, and Everton won EG 1.32 - 0.87 with 10 men. I know it sucks to lose, but these are bets I would make again if these matches were played again this weekend. Aston Villa tied 1-1 at about 85 minutes but managed to lose 3-1 was also a tough loss on the Asian handicap.
Ok, I know half of you just scanned down to here for the free pick:
MLB:
St Louis -190 (Flaherty, xFIP 3.85) vs Kansas City (Sparkman, xFIP 5.57). Sparkman is awful and the Royals are awful, I'm sure everyone knows that. But Flaherty has been outstanding, he strikes out nearly 30% of hitters. He's been even better than outstanding his last few starts. I know it's a big price, but this is a rare instance where it's worth laying the wood on the Cardinals.
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