EppleySports

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.67 units to win 0.62  San Francisco Giants -108  vs Baltimore Orioles Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  Pittsburgh Pirates +106  vs Milwaukee Brewers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.52  UNDER 8.5 +104  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 0.5 units to win 0.51  UNDER 9 +101  vs St. Louis Cardinals Risked 0.5 units to win 0.43  UNDER 8.5 -115  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.33 units to win 0.22  San Diego Padres -152  vs Miami Marlins These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

NHL game 2 is tonight.  The Blues couldn't hold a 2 goal lead in game 1.  They need to stay out of the penalty box because the Bruins power play is on fire right now.  NHL St Louis +150 vs Boston

It's Memorial Day, so find time to raise your glass to remember those who fought for our country and didn't make it home.  Cheers to them and their families. Nothing more American than baseball and hot dogs, so fire up the grill and watch the games. MLB Houston -180 (Cole) vs Chicago Cubs (Hamels) Mets (deGrom) vs Dodgers (Kershaw) Under 6.5 -105 I also like the Reds in both games against the Pirates, but there's no lines right now.  Game 1 should be Kingman v Castillo and game 2 Keller v Gray.  The Reds at -160 or better in either game would be a good price to bet.  

A winning Friday for everyone following the free plays, the only loss was the Red Sox.  Another 3 error game for the Red Sox with Sale pitching.  It seems they can't catch the ball when he pitches. No UFC fights this weekend.  I'll try to have one next weekend for you guys.  I've received lots of requests for more fight picks since every one I've put on here has won.  I didn't realize there's so many fight fans out there. MLB Dodgers -180 (Ryu) vs Pittsburgh (Musgrove) I know some don't like to bet heavy chalks, so the best dog today - Cincinnati +140 (Mahle) vs Chicago Cubs (Darvish).  Darvish has been trash for years, yet he's always a big favorite.  One of the mysteries of life. 

A lot of games off the board right now, so check back in the morning for more possible picks. Only 2 picks on the overnights: My Tracked Plays Risked 0.67 units to win 0.96  Cincinnati Reds +143  vs Chicago Cubs Risked 1 unit to win 0.73  Boston Red Sox -137  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 8.5 -101  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.67 units to win 0.78  Philadelphia Phillies +117  vs Milwaukee Brewers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 9.5 -101  vs St. Louis Cardinals Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 10 -111  vs Kansas City Royals These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

Well the nice baseball winning streak ended with the Reds blowing a 5 run lead and the Nationals giving up 6 runs in the 8th to kill the under.  Bad beats even out in the long run so we are owed a few lucky ones sometime this year - let's hope anyway. As expected, the public is betting the Bruins like the series is already over.  So you know which way we're going: NHL St Louis +145 to win the series vs Boston MLB Philadelphia -105 (Nola) vs Chicago Cubs (Lester)

The Blues won the series for us.  I might have a series play for the Stanley Cup in a few days.  I suspect the public will be all over the Bruins, so there might be good value on the Blues. MLB Cincinnati -120 (Castillo) vs Milwaukee (Davies)

Another winning day yesterday.  Baseball 11-1 last 2 days, NHL and NBA also continue to win.  Free picks still doing very well, I've lost track of the record.  If anyone knows the record, let me know. MLB Cleveland -135 (Bauer) vs Oakland (Bassitt)

The Blues won yesterday, which was nice considering we had them for the game and still have a series bet on them.  With all the injuries the Sharks suffered in game 5, I'd look for the Blues to finish this series at home in game 6.  But they will be massively over-priced.  The Raptors got the money for all basketball clients.  Today we have another 3-0 series, seems like there's been a lot of these this year in both the NBA and the NHL.   As I've mentioned many times, these teams down 0-3 will either fight for their lives and win or mail it in and start making early vacation plans with the family.  The attitude of the Blazers seems to show they are coming to play, which might be a good bet especially with the line adjustment from game 3 (-2) to game 4 (+3.5). MLB NY Yankees -190 (Happ) vs Baltimore (Cashner)

Well the Blazers couldn't make it a series in the West, so will the Raptors be able to get a win in the East?  Normally teams down 0-2 and playing game 3 at home will get a win and get back in the series, but we saw yesterday that isn't always the case.   I lean towards Toronto to get the win, but betting them for the 1st half may be the best bet.  NHL St Louis +115 vs San Jose MLB LA Dodgers -180 (Ryu) vs Cincinnati (Roark)

The Pirates were winning 3-1 in the 9th and still can't cash the Under 7.  A few days ago Sale strikes out 17 and loses - first time in history that's ever happened.  It's been an unlucky year to say the least.  But there's still 75% of the baseball season remaining, so let's hope the miracles stop. UFC Rafael Dos Anjos -115 MLB Detroit +100 (Boyd) vs Oakland (Mengden).  The Tigers are perceived as a bad team, which is why the public is on the A's here, but Boyd is significantly better than Mengden.  Tigers should be -133.

Today's baseball games listed below.  You can also see them in the spreadsheet link above. Saturday I'll post some UFC fights. 4:05PM Colorado Rockies (J. Gray) vs Philadelphia Phillies (C. Irvin) Colorado Rockies +115  5/16 4:06pm  Risked 0.5 units to win 0.58 4:05PM Chicago Cubs (C. Hamels) vs Washington Nationals (M. Scherzer) Washington Nationals -147  5/16 4:06pm  Risked 1 unit to win 0.68 UNDER 7 +105  5/16 4:06pm  Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53 4:10PM Houston Astros (G. Cole) vs Boston Red Sox (R. Porcello) UNDER 9.5 -116  5/16 4:07pm  Risked 0.5 units to win 0.43 4:20PM Milwaukee Brewers (J. Chacin) vs Atlanta Braves (M. Fried) Atlanta Braves -135  5/16 4:06pm  Risked 0.5 units to win 0.37 7:07PM Kansas City Royals (B. Keller) vs LAA Angels (M. Harvey) LAA Angels -141  5/16 4:07pm  Risked 0.67 units to win 0.48 7:10PM Pittsburgh Pirates (J. Lyles) vs San Diego Padres (J. Lucchesi) UNDER 7 +104  5/16 4:07pm  Risked 0.5 units to wi

San Jose pulled it out in OT after blowing a 2 goal lead twice.  It was a nice win, and now ideally the Blues bounce back with a win to help our series bet. Some really bad shooting killed the Over in the basketball game yesterday.   The only chance Toronto has is to push the pace and not allow the Bucks to set up their defense.  The public bet the Under like they knew the final score in advance because both teams have played what appears to be good defense in the playoffs so far.  But betting totals is about pace, and it was a frenetic pace that produced 185 shots and 47 free throws.  For perspective, that's 18 more shots than the Warriors and Blazers put up in their game.  Unfortunately, Toronto shot 37% and Milwaukee 40% (25% from 3). NHL Carolina +105 vs Boston.   Teams down 3-0 in a series will either be highly motivated and get a win or they will mail it in and get killed.  Carolina rates higher in most analytical categories, so let's hope they don't throw in the

I know we still have a series bet on the Blues, but that doesn't affect individual game pricing.  I know many people won't bet against the team they have to win the series, but remember the two bets are independent of one another. With that in mind - NHL San Jose +125 vs St Louis.  My model prices the Sharks at 51.1% to win the game, and +125 is 44.4%  which gives us a 6.7% edge. NBA Toronto vs Milwaukee over 217.5

Not much on the sports schedule on some days during the summer, but I do have a bet in the NHL Tuesday. NHL Carolina -115 vs Boston

A winning day yesterday with the free picks going 2-0.  That's 43-29 for the free picks since the start of this blog.  And many of the winners were money-line underdogs.  Two game 7's in the NBA today.  Generally these game 7's favor the home team and the under.  The home team wins about 71% and covers about 56%.  An unusual trend is that the larger the home favorite, the more likely they are to cover.  Home teams of -3 or less are 0-6 in the last 15 years, while home teams of -4 or more are 25-14.  When -10 or more, home teams are 2-0.  Last day for the English Premier League.    The only thing really at stake is can Brighton get a draw or win against Man City.  Liverpool would need to beat Wolverhampton and hope City doesn't get 3 points. Premier League Brighton vs Manchester City under 3.5 -140.   Also some under 3 plus money out there. Fulham +145 vs Newcastle United Everton +210 vs Tottenham.   Game doesn't mean anything to Tottenham and I suspect they

We've reached the time of the year where basketball, hockey, and soccer are all at the end of the season, so Saturday doesn't seem as busy as it normally does.   But there is baseball, which went 5-3 yesterday for those who checked out the free picks on the spreadsheet, and there are UFC fights in Brazil. MLB Cincinnati -130 (Desclafani) vs San Francisco (Samardzija) UFC Alexander Volkanovski +115 vs Jose Aldo

If you click on the baseball spreadsheet, you can see all of today's picks for free. NHL St Louis +110 to win series vs San Jose

A big comeback and a late goal by Tottenham gave us a win yesterday.  But Colorado lost the series in 7 games to the Sharks. Overall a profitable day.  I know everyone likes to bet the NBA playoffs, but there just hasn't been anything worth betting the last few days.  Tomorrow I lean towards Toronto -2 and Denver +4, but I haven't bet any of those.  I've been getting requests for NBA bets, but I don't like giving out games I didn't personally bet. NHL Carolina +140 to win series vs Boston.

We need Colorado in game 7 to win the series bet.  If you didn't bet the series, they are a good bet at +125 or better.  The second semi-final in the Champions League is today.  Yesterday Liverpool made a miraculous comeback against Barcelona. Champions League Tottenham +230 vs Ajax.  A 1-0 win for Tottenham would send the game to overtime.  Any other winning score would have them advance to the final.  They are +300 to advance, which is a good bet, but I'd prefer the +230 to win in 90 minutes to protect the possible 1-0 score line. 

Back in the win column yesterday with the free pick.  But Columbus lost the series in six games to Boston.  We still have Colorado alive going to a game 7. Champions League Barcelona +170 vs Liverpool.   Just too many injuries for Liverpool to make a run  at this huge deficit. 

Some tough losses for the free picks over the weekend, but no moral victories here.  Making money is all that matters, and we didn't do that this weekend.  Let's get back in the win column: Premier League Leicester City +2.5 -150 vs Machester City.  There is also +2 +115 available at many books.

A full day of sports this Sunday, here's some picks to hopefully make it a profitable day. Premier League Huddersfield +1.5 vs Manchester United NBA Toronto vs Philadelphia Over 214 MLB Cincinnati -165 (Castillo) vs San Francisco (Samardzija)

It's a busy Saturday sports day, so here's some free picks. Premier League Southampton +190 vs West Ham Bournemouth +300 vs Tottenham. NHL Colorado +115 vs San Jose NBA Golden State +3.5 vs Houston MLB Toronto +125 (Pannone) vs Texas ( Lynn)

Another winner for the free picks yesterday.   I appreciate the nice emails guys, glad you're winning money. I've been asked similar questions about hockey and soccer so let me answer here.  Yes, I do bet on hockey and soccer all year, but I don't enter those on Pickmonitor because there didn't appear to be any interest.  But maybe I will start doing so next season since many have asked.  If anyone has ideas for what should be offered and at what price, let me know.   I'll definitely be giving discounts to all subscribers and those that were with me this year. NHL St Louis -140 vs Dallas

I have 2 bets in the NBA today.  All subscribers get them for free, you should have already received them.  If you didn't get them, it's probably because you subscribed after I sent the email.  Just send me an email and I'll get them to you right away. NHL Colorado -120 vs San Jose

NBA playoffs won again yesterday.  All subscribers will get the rest of the NBA playoffs emailed to them for free.  A rare loss for the free picks yesterday.  Let's get back on track today: Champions League Liverpool / Barcelona under 3 -130.