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Showing posts with the label Correlation

When Winning is Skill - and a Free Pick

So you look through a list of handicappers and see a bunch of statistics, but which ones are based on skill and which ones are throwing darts and getting lucky?   The first thing you should look for is the number of non-correlated picks.  That means if there's a pick on the side, run-line, and first five innings of the same game, that counts as 1 pick, not 3 picks.  So the record might say 3-0, but you have to look through the record to determine how often there's correlated picks and subtract them out.  That gives you the real number of picks to compare to other handicappers.  I don't make correlated picks.  So now how many non-correlated picks is enough to identify skill?  Here's a little cheat sheet you can use.  For you math geeks, I know these aren't exact, but they are very close and easy to remember and use. A winning record with: 1000 picks.  About 10% chance record is based on luck. 2000 picks.  About 9% chance record is based on luck. 5000 picks.