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Showing posts with the label Kelly Criterion

When to Raise / Lower Bets

I explained earlier that you shouldn't ever risk more than 1% on any game.  So a bankroll of 10K would be a $100 maximum bet.  If you like to use different levels of betting, then always reduce the first level below 1%.  So if you have 1 unit bets and 2 unit bets, the 1 unit might be 0.5% and the 2 unit bets 1%.  But should your maximum bet always be $100 with a 10K bankroll?  What you want to do is raise your bet when you're winning and lower it when you're losing.  You can do this by recalculating your 1% every day.  Example: 10K bank, 1%=100 bet.  You bet 3 games at -115, +105, +130.  In yesterday's post I explained how to bet these games.  So you would bet 100 to win 86.96 at -115, 114.29 to win 120 at +105, 92.31 to win 120 at +130.  Let's say they all win for a total of +326.96. Now your bankroll is 10,326.96, so 1%=103.27.  So you would bet 103.27 on any favorite.  But don't forget to add your 20% to small underdogs so you would bet 107.76 to win 123.