EppleySports

The last week of baseball season is usually rather boring as most games don't mean anything.  But the Nationals beat the Phillies 5 straight to reach 90 wins and go over their season win total, and the White Sox lost to stay under their season win total.  Overall season wins totals went 7-3 for another profitable year. The NHL starts next week, so expect some season point totals to be sent soon, probably Sunday or Monday.  I always like to wait to make sure there's not an injury during preseason.   NBA starts about a week after the NHL so anticipate some season win totals just before the season starts. Remember you can become a member at any time, just send an email to get started.  Also, you can use the pay links on here to get whatever day or week of bets you'd like.  I know everyone has been missing the free winners, but there just wasn't much to bet this week with baseball in its final days and not much else going on. Friday: Arizona State +4.5 vs Californ

Well the weekend was a mixed bag with Saturday being disappointing but Sunday being great.  There were a few games that easily should have gone our way but didn't.  The worst was on Friday when FIU was down 5 and kicking off with under a minute remaining.  LA Tech returns the on-side kick for a TD and beats us.  The USC game and Louisville game also should have been in our win column, but it didn't happen.  When a bad weekend is just losing a few units, that's still a good sign when it took some miracle endings to beat us.  For those that bought just the weekend picks on Saturday or Sunday, you had a nice win.  But those that bought on Friday, I know you came up a little short so send me an email and I'll give you next week free.  Baseball is on a nice 5 day run and closing the season strong.  For season win totals, I need everyone to be a Washington Nationals fan this week.  I need them to go 5-3 in their remaining 8 games.  They have 5 against the Phillies and 3 a

If you want all the games this weekend, just use the buy button on the side.  If you just want Saturday's games, you can buy just that day.  If you want longer subscriptions, just email me. Friday EPL: Southampton +115 vs Bournemouth.   Bournemouth and West Ham have the worst defenses in the EPL.   That might be a hint who I bet on Sunday.  Southampton's attack ranks only  behind Man City and Tottenham, so they should be a strong favorite here.   Expected goals are 2.6 - 1.1.  Saturday EPL: Burnley vs Norwich Under 2.5 +120.    Two below average defenses, but also two lousy attacking offenses.   Expected goals 1.1 - 0.9.  First team to score probably wins 1-0. College Football: Louisville +7 or 6.5 vs Florida State.  Hard to believe Florida State could beat anybody by a touchdown. South Alabama +11 vs UAB.  UAB not impressive at all, barely beating Alabama State and Akron.  South Alabama stayed in the game at Nebraska, I think they do the same here.  Sunday NFL:

Just some quick free picks for you today. Whew no reading or math quizzes today, just right to the free winners! Champions League: Real Madrid vs PSG Under 3 -105.   All the firepower will be on the sidelines for this match.  Neymar, Mbappe, and Cavani all out for PSG, and Isco and Modric out for Real.  Hazard might play but it's his first game back so his fitness is questionable.   These clubs aren't known for trying to defend a one goal lead, but whoever scores first may do just that.    MLB: Washington -160 (Scherzer, xFIP 2.97) vs St. Louis (Wainwright, xFIP 4.46).  Nationals in must-win mode the rest of the way.  Nobody I'd rather have on the mound than Mad Max. 

We are about 2 weeks away from the start of the NHL season, which is one of my favorite sports.  Some guys like to use the Corsi and some like the Fenwick.  And puck heads will argue until the death about which is more important.  But they both can be used in our handicapping to help us get an advantage.  Obviously this could be a lengthy discussion, but the short version is to use a team's Corsi against opponents with weak defenders who don't block a lot of shots, and use a team's Fenwick against opponents with defenders who do block a lot of shots.  So team A with good defenders is playing team B with lousy defenders.  We would use team A's Corsi and team B's Fenwick to determine the expected shot attempts for each team.  But will those shots go in the net?  Once the shot is taken and it gets through the defenders, we need to know the skill level of the goaltender.  One category I like to use is a goaltenders current save percentage versus his lifetime save pe

$50 Weekend Soccer / Football Since many of the football lines have moved for today's games, you will get this weekends games and next weekends games for $50.  Just click the buy button.  Next weekends games will start to be available on Monday so you can get the best lines.  You also get all the EPL soccer picks for today and next week. EPL: Leicester vs Manchester United Under 2.5 -105 College: New Mexico +34 vs Notre Dame UNLV +18.5 vs Northwestern NFL Sunday: Indianapolis vs Tennessee Under 43.5 NFL Monday: Cleveland -2.5 vs NY Jets Added Saturday night: I bet this game earlier in the week and didn't realize how much it moved when I originally wrote this. Obviously don't bet Cleveland at -6.5.  Added Sunday night, a game to replace the Browns game: MLB Monday: NY Mets -150 (Matz, xFIP 4.26) vs Colorado (Senzatela, xFIP 5.20) 

Free pick won again yesterday.   Ready to become a member?  Just send an email to get started. I know some of you are looking for this weekends football, but I can't sell that this weekend because the lines have all moved a lot.  You would not be able to get anywhere near the lines I got earlier in the week, so it wouldn't be right to sell those games now.  But that's why you need to become a member so you can get the early lines.  Ok, I know, everyone wants another winner. MLB: Washington -160 (Scherzer, xFIP 2.91) vs Atlanta (Soroka, xFIP 3.86).  Scherzer is the best there is with a xFIP under 3 and a K:BB 7:1 which is off the charts outstanding.  If there was one game you had to win and could pick any pitcher on the planet, I'd take Scherzer.   Soroka has a K:BB just over 3:1 which is good but he has a BABIP .280 so regression is coming.   Sometimes things are as they appear and you can't over think things, getting Max Scherzer at a price less than -200 i

Free picks keep winning. That's 4 or 5 in a row?  Maybe more, I haven't been keeping track.  My free pick record since the beginning of this blog in March is better than nearly any record you'll find on Pickmonitor or any other site.   Use a few bucks from your winnings to become a member and make even more money.  I need another winner, I haven't won enough yet Eppley. MLB: NY Mets -135 (Stroman, xFIP 3.94) vs Arizona (Young, xFIP 4.42).    Young's numbers appear to be average with a xFIP in the mid 4's and K:BB 3:1.  But his BABIP .233 tells us he's due for regression which means he's actually well below average.  Stroman's numbers are pretty good with a xFIP below 4 and K:BB nearly 3:1.  But he's accomplished this with a BABIP .387.  So he's also due for regression in a good way, which means he's even better than his current numbers suggest.   Mets have a better bullpen, despite the public's perception their bullpen stinks, a

Free picks just keep winning. I don't know the exact record anymore, but I know it's been a while since the last loss.  Let's get right to it: MLB San Diego -105 (Paddack, xFIP 4.14) vs Chicago Cubs (Hamels, xFIP 4.36).  Hamels isn't bad with a K:BB just under 3:1, but Paddack is better with nearly a 5:1.   Then consider the Padres hit lefties extremely well, .260/.338/.452 vs lefties and .238/.301/.410 vs righties.   Cubs also lousy on the road and a terrible bullpen.   Let's take the Padres at a pretty cheap price.

I know I missed a few days of posting over the weekend, and boy did I hear about it!  I got lots of messages wanting to know what happened to the free picks.  I didn't realize how popular they are.  I'll try not to miss so many days, but the weekends do get busy this time of year.  Remember I do the handicapping, I watch line movements, I make bets, I enter picks, I answer emails, I do everything on my own.  There's no team here, no partners or secretary.  I'm not complaining, I love doing it, but just wanted to let everyone know why sometimes I might not have a blog post. The football results over the weekend were a slight disappointment.  There were a few games that we were unlucky on, but these type of games even out in the long-run.  But we all remember the ones that go against us and seem to forget the ones that go our way, so it feels like the football gods are against us.  The overall result was down a few units.  Anyone who bought the weekend games, I'll

Weekend Football Green Bay was a winner yesterday.  Thanks to everyone who bought that winner.  The best deal is to become a member and get every pick for the rest of the season.  But for those just wanting this weekend's picks, click the buy button above and get all picks for $50 dollars.  That's every college pick on Saturday and every NFL pick on Sunday.  You will also get the baseball picks included. College Football: Marshall +12 vs Boise State.  

The NFL season begins and I know it brings people out of the woodwork.  Consider there will be more money bet on this one NFL game than all the baseball games today combined.   Another example is there will be more money bet on this week's NFL games than all the tennis matches at the US Open for the next 10 years.   With all that money being bet, the NFL is the only sport where the public can actually move the line.  In other words, a large bet on an NFL game doesn't necessarily mean it's sharp money. I do have a bet on the NFL game tonight.  If you become a member you will get every game this year. Send email for details.  But I know some of you just want tonight's game so you can get it here for just $20 bucks.  If it doesn't win, I'll give you access for the rest of September for free . $20 bucks for Packers vs Bears winner.  Send an email after paying and I'll send the game right away. MLB: Detroit -125 1st 5 innings (Boyd, xFIP 3.72) vs K

September baseball is probably the most difficult time of year to bet baseball because it's no secret which teams are playing for something and which teams are mailing it in.   The public is going to bet the big favorites no matter what the price is, but sharps start to shy away from the underdogs because there's no effort by some teams who are just playing out the season.  That's why we are seeing a lot more -300's now.  Public bets the chalk and there's no buyback from sharps, so books just keep inflating the price in hopes of finding someone interested in betting Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, Colorado, Miami, etc.  Betting a -300 chalk should make your knees weak and want to vomit.  Anyone suggesting that's a good bet is someone you should run away from.  On the other hand, do you want an underdog with only a 25% - 30% chance of winning?  Yes there's value in the price, but it's probably going to lose.  And with only about 25 days left in the sea

Baseball on a nice 4 day run, but not much standing out on the overnights.  Many games don't have lines yet. One game to look for in the morning is the line on the Yankees game.  Volquez is scheduled for Texas, who walks more hitters than he strikesout and has an xFIP 6.56.  That's bad, real bad.  But it gets worse, he has an xFIP 5.33 in Rookie League this year and a K:BB 1:1.   Oh brother,  he sucks in Rookie ball and now faces the Yankees?  If Texas were playing for anything, he wouldn't be pitching.  Anything less than -300 would be a good bet on the Yankees, maybe even a rare case for -1.5 on the run line.  Another line to look for in the morning is the Total in the Cubs game.  There's never an overnight Total listed for Wrigley Field because of the wind.  But one of the best Under umpires is working the plate, so a Total of 9 or higher would be a good Under bet as long as the wind isn't howling straight over the wall. 

Click the baseball spreadsheet above to see the win totals I bet.  Here's an updated projection chart from Vegasinsider.com.  Of the 10 I bet, 7 look pretty good, 2 are dead, and I think Cincy still has a shot at 79 wins if they can win a few in a row to get back on pace.  Win Total Winners: Colorado Rockies - Under (85 ½) Detroit Tigers - Under (68) Minnesota Twins - Over (84) On the Cusp: Arizona Diamondbacks - Over (75 ½) Atlanta Braves - Over (86) Los Angeles Dodgers - Over (92 ½) Oakland Athletics - Over (81 ½ ) Tampa Bay Rays - (84 ½) Texas Rangers - (71) Boston Red Sox - Under (93 ½) Win Totals provided by the  Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook NATIONAL LEAGUE WIN TOTALS Team Win Total - 2019 Record on 9/1/19 Projection Arizona Diamondbacks 75 ½ 70-66 Atlanta Braves 86 83-54 Chicago Cubs 87 ½ 73-62 Cincinnati Reds 79 63-72 Colorado Rockies 85 ½ 59-78 Los Angeles Dodgers 92 ½ 88-50 Miami Marlins 63 ½ 48-87 Milwaukee Brewers 86 ½ 69-66 New York Mets 85 ½ 69-66 Phil