Free Pick 9/4/19
September baseball is probably the most difficult time of year to bet baseball because it's no secret which teams are playing for something and which teams are mailing it in. The public is going to bet the big favorites no matter what the price is, but sharps start to shy away from the underdogs because there's no effort by some teams who are just playing out the season. That's why we are seeing a lot more -300's now. Public bets the chalk and there's no buyback from sharps, so books just keep inflating the price in hopes of finding someone interested in betting Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, Colorado, Miami, etc.
Betting a -300 chalk should make your knees weak and want to vomit. Anyone suggesting that's a good bet is someone you should run away from. On the other hand, do you want an underdog with only a 25% - 30% chance of winning? Yes there's value in the price, but it's probably going to lose. And with only about 25 days left in the season, there's not enough time to get a big sample size to let that value play out. So that's why there's low volume on baseball betting in September.
Yeah, whatever Eppley, I just need a winner today!
Well the worst pitcher on the schedule today is Senzatela for the Rockies. His xFIP 5.29, K:BB 1:1, and walks over 10% of hitters. He's pure cannon fodder. As a bonus, the umpire is one of the best Over umps who isn't going to call a lot of strikes. So look for the Dodgers to score a bunch. Ryu, xFIP 3.43 and an outstanding K:BB 7:1. Even with a bad umpire, he should still be very good. So the best bet is Dodgers -1.5 -170. You might also consider the Over 9.5 as the Dodgers might score 10 on their own. FYI - I didn't personally bet this yet, I'm waiting to see who the Dodgers put in their line-up.
Betting a -300 chalk should make your knees weak and want to vomit. Anyone suggesting that's a good bet is someone you should run away from. On the other hand, do you want an underdog with only a 25% - 30% chance of winning? Yes there's value in the price, but it's probably going to lose. And with only about 25 days left in the season, there's not enough time to get a big sample size to let that value play out. So that's why there's low volume on baseball betting in September.
Yeah, whatever Eppley, I just need a winner today!
Well the worst pitcher on the schedule today is Senzatela for the Rockies. His xFIP 5.29, K:BB 1:1, and walks over 10% of hitters. He's pure cannon fodder. As a bonus, the umpire is one of the best Over umps who isn't going to call a lot of strikes. So look for the Dodgers to score a bunch. Ryu, xFIP 3.43 and an outstanding K:BB 7:1. Even with a bad umpire, he should still be very good. So the best bet is Dodgers -1.5 -170. You might also consider the Over 9.5 as the Dodgers might score 10 on their own. FYI - I didn't personally bet this yet, I'm waiting to see who the Dodgers put in their line-up.
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