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Should You Fade a Losing Bettor?

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  I get this question a lot.  Some guy on social media or on one of the bet tracker sites will have a losing record, so just fade his picks and you will win right?  I'll get an email saying hey check this guy out on whatever website, man he's awful.  Should we just fade his picks? Short answer is no.  In basketball and football against-the-spread or total bets with standard -110 lines, the ROI for 50% is -4.3%. So fading a 50% handicapper would also give you a -4.3% ROI. The point to understand here is that a negative ROI doesn't mean fading those picks would produce a positive ROI. At -110, a winning percentage of 52.5% is a 0.23% ROI. The very opposite winning percentage of 47.5% is a -9.3% ROI. Nearly all bettors, 99% of them, will fall between 47.5% and 52.5% in the long run. Finding someone below 47.5% or below -9.3% ROI is as rare as finding someone with a winning record. One last thing. Even if you found a guy with a 45% winning percentage with 1000 picks, he's s

Should You Fade A Loser?

I originally wrote this in the forum on Pickmonitor.  Guys think betting against someone who loses means they will win, but that's not the case. Jul 7th, 2019 at 2:04pm Posts In basketball and football against-the-spread or total bets with standard -110 lines, the ROI for 50% is -4.3%. So fading a 50% handicapper would also give you a -4.3% ROI. The point to understand here is that a negative ROI doesn't mean fading those picks would produce a positive ROI. At -110, a winning percentage of 52.5% is a 0.23% ROI. The very opposite winning percentage of 47.5% is a -9.3% ROI. Nearly all bettors, 99% of them, will fall between 47.5% and 52.5% in the long run. Finding someone below 47.5% or below -9.3% ROI is as rare as finding someone with a winning record. One last thing. Even if you found a guy with a 45% winning percentage with 1000 picks, he's still likely to win between 47.5% and 52.5% of his next 1000 picks so fading him would still be a bad idea. While