Money Line Betting - Part 2
A quick recap. Example is team A is -120 and team B is +110. Three ways to bet:
1) Traditional - risk 120 to win 100 on team A or risk 100 to win 110 on team B;
2) Risk same amount - bet 100 on either team;
3) To win same amount - bet to win 100 on either team.
For a more detailed explanation, it was covered in an earlier post.
So which way is best? First, let's look at why the traditional way of betting doesn't work, Let's say you bet 2 games. Game 1 you bet 120 to win 100 on a favorite, and game 2 you bet 100 to win 110 on an underdog. If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you break even. If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you lose -10. So the only way for you to win is for both games to win.
But now let's say you bet the same 2 games using method #2 above. So now you bet 100 to win 83.33 on the favorite and 100 to win 110 on the dog. If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you lose -16.67. If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you win +10. So now you can split the 2 games and still win money.
Method #3 would be 120 to win 100 on the favorite and 90.91 to win 100 on the dog. So if the favorite wins and the dog loses, you win +9.09. If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you lose -20.
So obviously the traditional way is the worst of the methods. The only reason people learned to bet this way is because the bets and payouts would be in whole dollar amounts. This made things easier at the window when placing bets and when collecting.
But today we bet on phone apps or internet sites. Computers can calculate amounts in seconds and money is deducted or added to our accounts. So which of the other methods is best? This really depends on your betting history. If you mostly bet favorites, method #3 is going to be best for you. But remember your winning percentage needs to be extremely high if your average price is more than -110.
So that leaves method #2. This method values underdogs more than favorites. Since successful baseball / hockey bettors will bet mostly dogs, this is the preferred way of betting. Personally I combine methods #2 and #3 with a slight adjustment. I bet to win 20% more on short underdogs, 10% more on medium dogs, and to win exactly 100 on large dogs. Some examples: Dogs up to +130, bet to win 120. So risk 96 to win 120 on a +125 dog. Dogs from +130 to +160, bet to win 110. So risk 73.33 to win 110 on a +150 dog. Dogs greater than +160, bet to win 100. So risk 45.45 to win 100 on a +220 dog. Risk 100 on all favorites.
Hope this gives you the confidence to break away from the traditional way of betting.
Questions contact EppleySports@gmail.com
1) Traditional - risk 120 to win 100 on team A or risk 100 to win 110 on team B;
2) Risk same amount - bet 100 on either team;
3) To win same amount - bet to win 100 on either team.
For a more detailed explanation, it was covered in an earlier post.
So which way is best? First, let's look at why the traditional way of betting doesn't work, Let's say you bet 2 games. Game 1 you bet 120 to win 100 on a favorite, and game 2 you bet 100 to win 110 on an underdog. If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you break even. If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you lose -10. So the only way for you to win is for both games to win.
But now let's say you bet the same 2 games using method #2 above. So now you bet 100 to win 83.33 on the favorite and 100 to win 110 on the dog. If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you lose -16.67. If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you win +10. So now you can split the 2 games and still win money.
Method #3 would be 120 to win 100 on the favorite and 90.91 to win 100 on the dog. So if the favorite wins and the dog loses, you win +9.09. If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you lose -20.
So obviously the traditional way is the worst of the methods. The only reason people learned to bet this way is because the bets and payouts would be in whole dollar amounts. This made things easier at the window when placing bets and when collecting.
But today we bet on phone apps or internet sites. Computers can calculate amounts in seconds and money is deducted or added to our accounts. So which of the other methods is best? This really depends on your betting history. If you mostly bet favorites, method #3 is going to be best for you. But remember your winning percentage needs to be extremely high if your average price is more than -110.
So that leaves method #2. This method values underdogs more than favorites. Since successful baseball / hockey bettors will bet mostly dogs, this is the preferred way of betting. Personally I combine methods #2 and #3 with a slight adjustment. I bet to win 20% more on short underdogs, 10% more on medium dogs, and to win exactly 100 on large dogs. Some examples: Dogs up to +130, bet to win 120. So risk 96 to win 120 on a +125 dog. Dogs from +130 to +160, bet to win 110. So risk 73.33 to win 110 on a +150 dog. Dogs greater than +160, bet to win 100. So risk 45.45 to win 100 on a +220 dog. Risk 100 on all favorites.
Hope this gives you the confidence to break away from the traditional way of betting.
Questions contact EppleySports@gmail.com
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