Free Picks 6/16/19

Happy Fathers Day to everyone.  Let's enjoy the day with some winners.

MLB
Pittsburgh -105 (Archer, xFIP 4.87) vs Miami (Alcantara, xFIP 5.06).  I know Archer hasn't been great this year, but that's primarily due to 24% of fly balls being home runs against him.  That rate would be hard to maintain against a batting practice machine.  Alcantara is just terrible with a K:BB ratio of less than 2:1 and he walks 11% of batters.  Archer has been unlucky, Alcantara is just bad.

Cincinnati -165 (Gray, xFIP 3.55) vs Texas (Jurado, xFIP 4.27).  Jurado is a fly ball pitcher with a 13% home run rate.  That's not a good combination in Cincinnati, known as the Great Little Ballpark.

COPA America
Uruguay -145 vs Ecuador.  Ecuador is unlikely to score, so Uruguay need to get just 1 to win.

I also bet Justin Rose +140 to win the US Open.  He's one shot back of  Gary Woodland who I think will collapse under the pressure.  Koepka is 3 shots behind Rose, but can he win 3 consecutive US Opens?  I just don't believe it.

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