Free Picks 6/16/19
Happy Fathers Day to everyone. Let's enjoy the day with some winners.
MLB
Pittsburgh -105 (Archer, xFIP 4.87) vs Miami (Alcantara, xFIP 5.06). I know Archer hasn't been great this year, but that's primarily due to 24% of fly balls being home runs against him. That rate would be hard to maintain against a batting practice machine. Alcantara is just terrible with a K:BB ratio of less than 2:1 and he walks 11% of batters. Archer has been unlucky, Alcantara is just bad.
Cincinnati -165 (Gray, xFIP 3.55) vs Texas (Jurado, xFIP 4.27). Jurado is a fly ball pitcher with a 13% home run rate. That's not a good combination in Cincinnati, known as the Great Little Ballpark.
COPA America
Uruguay -145 vs Ecuador. Ecuador is unlikely to score, so Uruguay need to get just 1 to win.
I also bet Justin Rose +140 to win the US Open. He's one shot back of Gary Woodland who I think will collapse under the pressure. Koepka is 3 shots behind Rose, but can he win 3 consecutive US Opens? I just don't believe it.
MLB
Pittsburgh -105 (Archer, xFIP 4.87) vs Miami (Alcantara, xFIP 5.06). I know Archer hasn't been great this year, but that's primarily due to 24% of fly balls being home runs against him. That rate would be hard to maintain against a batting practice machine. Alcantara is just terrible with a K:BB ratio of less than 2:1 and he walks 11% of batters. Archer has been unlucky, Alcantara is just bad.
Cincinnati -165 (Gray, xFIP 3.55) vs Texas (Jurado, xFIP 4.27). Jurado is a fly ball pitcher with a 13% home run rate. That's not a good combination in Cincinnati, known as the Great Little Ballpark.
COPA America
Uruguay -145 vs Ecuador. Ecuador is unlikely to score, so Uruguay need to get just 1 to win.
I also bet Justin Rose +140 to win the US Open. He's one shot back of Gary Woodland who I think will collapse under the pressure. Koepka is 3 shots behind Rose, but can he win 3 consecutive US Opens? I just don't believe it.
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