Free Pick 6/29/19
Another winning day yesterday. Let's keep it going with some afternoon baseball and evening fights.
MLB
Philadelphia -125 (Eflin, xFIP 4.74) vs Miami (Yamamoto, xFIP 4.60). Yamamoto has started 3 games and has an ERA 0.95 so the public will be all over Miami in this game. But his xFIP is 4.60 so we know he's not nearly as good as everyone thinks. Consider these underlying numbers: BABIP .167, HR% 0, BB% 11, GB% 33. So he's a fly ball pitcher who hasn't given up a home run yet. That will change. He also walks a lot of guys, so those home runs probably won't be solo shots. And his BABIP will regress to .300 like all pitchers eventually do. Look for Philly to score a bunch.
UFC
Last week I mentioned it was a card full of favorites, and that turned out to be the case. This week there's some underdogs worth betting.
Marco Polo Reyes +290 vs Drew Dober
Jussier Formiga +140 vs Joseph Benavidez
MLB
Philadelphia -125 (Eflin, xFIP 4.74) vs Miami (Yamamoto, xFIP 4.60). Yamamoto has started 3 games and has an ERA 0.95 so the public will be all over Miami in this game. But his xFIP is 4.60 so we know he's not nearly as good as everyone thinks. Consider these underlying numbers: BABIP .167, HR% 0, BB% 11, GB% 33. So he's a fly ball pitcher who hasn't given up a home run yet. That will change. He also walks a lot of guys, so those home runs probably won't be solo shots. And his BABIP will regress to .300 like all pitchers eventually do. Look for Philly to score a bunch.
UFC
Last week I mentioned it was a card full of favorites, and that turned out to be the case. This week there's some underdogs worth betting.
Marco Polo Reyes +290 vs Drew Dober
Jussier Formiga +140 vs Joseph Benavidez
Comments
Post a Comment