Free Pick 6/15/19

A baseball Saturday:

MLB
Philadelphia -105 (Nola, xFIP 3.79) vs Atlanta (Newcomb, xFIP 4.79).  Newcomb has a 2.59 ERA which is why the public will think Atlanta is a good play here.  But he has a 43.4% ground ball rate, which is bad.  The reason for his 4.79 xFIP is because he's a fly ball pitcher.  He's been fortunate with only 5% of those fly balls going over the wall.  Then there's Nola with a BABIP .340, which will regress to .300 so that explains his 4.58 ERA. 


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