Free Picks 6/22/19
Baseball and UFC today. Let's make it a winning Saturday.
MLB
Cincinnati -105 (Castillo, xFIP 3.65) vs Milwaukee (Chacin, xFIP 5.62). As some of you know, I bet the Reds to win the division at the beginning of the year. After a slow start, they are starting to play like contenders. But the public still hasn't caught on that the Brewers aren't very good and the Reds are much better than their record suggests. So we get a great price on the better team and a huge advantage on the mound. Castillo is my favorite type of pitcher, K 29% and GB 57%. That means very few fly balls, which obviously limits home runs and extra base hits. Then there's Chacin who is my favorite type of pitcher to bet against, K 18%, BB 11%, GB 34%. Notice K:BB ratio is less than 2:1 which is awful. Then there's lots of fly balls. So lots of walks and fly balls generally equals 3-run homers. Cincy's bats should stay hot and score a bunch.
UFC
Kevin Holland -220 vs Alessio Di Chirico. There's lots of big favorites on the card. I really like underdogs as you probably have noticed if you've been reading for a while, but I don't see any of these dogs having much of a chance tonight.
MLB
Cincinnati -105 (Castillo, xFIP 3.65) vs Milwaukee (Chacin, xFIP 5.62). As some of you know, I bet the Reds to win the division at the beginning of the year. After a slow start, they are starting to play like contenders. But the public still hasn't caught on that the Brewers aren't very good and the Reds are much better than their record suggests. So we get a great price on the better team and a huge advantage on the mound. Castillo is my favorite type of pitcher, K 29% and GB 57%. That means very few fly balls, which obviously limits home runs and extra base hits. Then there's Chacin who is my favorite type of pitcher to bet against, K 18%, BB 11%, GB 34%. Notice K:BB ratio is less than 2:1 which is awful. Then there's lots of fly balls. So lots of walks and fly balls generally equals 3-run homers. Cincy's bats should stay hot and score a bunch.
UFC
Kevin Holland -220 vs Alessio Di Chirico. There's lots of big favorites on the card. I really like underdogs as you probably have noticed if you've been reading for a while, but I don't see any of these dogs having much of a chance tonight.
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