Free Pick 6/12/19
With a series bet pending on St Louis, I haven't bet them in game 7. But if you don't have a series bet pending, the Blues are a good bet at +150.
Some of you won with Toronto +1.5, some of you got a push with +1. I got some emails asking why not take the money line at even money. Always take the points.
NHL
St Louis +150 vs Boston (don't bet again if you have a series bet)
MLB
Cincinnati +115 (Desclafani, xFIP 4.49) vs Cleveland (Plesac, xFIP 4.25). Plesac has a 1.86 ERA which is why the Indians are priced as the favorite. ERA of course has no correlation to predicting the future performance of a pitcher, while xFIP is a predictive statistic. The main reason for the large difference between Plesac's ERA and xFIP is his BABIP of .235. All pitchers will regress to around .300 BABIP so look for Plesac to give up some runs in his next few starts.
Some of you won with Toronto +1.5, some of you got a push with +1. I got some emails asking why not take the money line at even money. Always take the points.
NHL
St Louis +150 vs Boston (don't bet again if you have a series bet)
MLB
Cincinnati +115 (Desclafani, xFIP 4.49) vs Cleveland (Plesac, xFIP 4.25). Plesac has a 1.86 ERA which is why the Indians are priced as the favorite. ERA of course has no correlation to predicting the future performance of a pitcher, while xFIP is a predictive statistic. The main reason for the large difference between Plesac's ERA and xFIP is his BABIP of .235. All pitchers will regress to around .300 BABIP so look for Plesac to give up some runs in his next few starts.
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