EppleySports

Baseball red hot guys, check the spreadsheet above for all the results this year.  Also, we are just over a week away from the start of the EPL, so it's a great time to join and start experiencing what it's like to win with a real professional sports bettor.  MLB: NY Mets -160 (deGrom, xFIP 3.29)  vs White Sox (Giolito, xFIP 3.97).  Giolito had a few good starts and suddenly the public starts betting on him like he's a future Hall of Famer.  Well he's not.  He walks 9% of batters and his ground ball rate is only 38%.  Then he's been lucky with a BABIP .276, which will regress to .300 as it does for all pitchers.  We get deGrom, who actually is a future Hall of Famer, at a reduced price because of the public perception that Giolito is great and the Mets bullpen can't get anyone out. 

So you look through a list of handicappers and see a bunch of statistics, but which ones are based on skill and which ones are throwing darts and getting lucky?   The first thing you should look for is the number of non-correlated picks.  That means if there's a pick on the side, run-line, and first five innings of the same game, that counts as 1 pick, not 3 picks.  So the record might say 3-0, but you have to look through the record to determine how often there's correlated picks and subtract them out.  That gives you the real number of picks to compare to other handicappers.  I don't make correlated picks.  So now how many non-correlated picks is enough to identify skill?  Here's a little cheat sheet you can use.  For you math geeks, I know these aren't exact, but they are very close and easy to remember and use. A winning record with: 1000 picks.  About 10% chance record is based on luck. 2000 picks.  About 9% chance record is based on luck. 5000 picks. 

MLB: Washington -145 (Corbin, xFIP 3.64) vs Atlanta (Keuchel, xFIP 3.94).  A big series between the top 2 teams in the NL East.  Washington started the season 19-31, but are 37-18 since and only 5.5 games behind the Braves.  Keuchel is not the same pitcher he was with Houston.  His K:BB ratio is barely 2:1 which isn't very good.  Corbin's is over 4:1. 

Baseball continues to win.  Last 2 months have been sizzling hot.  Send an email to join and start making money. MLB NY Yankees (German, xFIP 4.01) vs Boston (Sale, xFIP 2.91) Under 10.5 -125.    German is very good, Sale is outstanding.  Both bullpens are also very good.  This total is inflated because of the juice ball stories and both line-ups have home-run hitters in a small Fenway Park.  But good pitching shuts down good hitting, it's been true since the 1800's.  Let's bet the game stays under the inflated total. 

If you're planning on joining me for the basketball season, signing-up now won't cost you any more money.  The cost will be the same now or in October.  You will get all other sports included.  So you will get baseball, soccer, football, and hockey included in the basketball price.  That's everything from now to June 2020.  Nobody else will make you money all year long.  Of the last 12 months, this July included, 8 months have been profitable, 2 months even, and only 2 losing months (a -5 unit month, and a -12 unit month).   All total about 80 units of profit.  All documented on Pickmonitor.com.  Keep in mind I bet 1 unit per game or less, so there's no 5 unit games or 2 unit games.  And then consider the record doesn't include soccer or hockey, which were also extremely profitable.  You can review the spreadsheets above.  I will be including all sports this year.  So come join the only guy on Pickmonitor with over 4K picks and over 1% ROI.   There's nobody

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.58  Colorado Rockies +115  vs Cincinnati Reds Risked 0.67 units to win 0.52  New York Yankees -130  vs Boston Red Sox Risked 0.67 units to win 0.39  New York Mets -174  vs Pittsburgh Pirates Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 10 -111  vs Chicago White Sox Risked 0.67 units to win 0.7  St. Louis Cardinals +104  vs Houston Astros Risked 1 unit to win 0.47  LAA Angels -213  vs Baltimore Orioles Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  Texas Rangers +100  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  UNDER 9 -111  vs Oakland Athletics Risked 0.5 units to win 0.34  San Diego Padres -148  vs San Francisco Giants Risked 0.33 units to win 0.4  Detroit Tigers +120  vs Seattle Mariners These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

MLB: Cleveland -135 (Plutko, xFIP 5.61) vs Kansas City (Montgomery, xFIP 4.82).  Montgomery is awful.  With the Cubs and Royals this year his K:BB ratio is less than 2:1.  In AAA this year his xFIP 5.08.  Not sure why the Cubs brought him up from AAA, but it's obvious why they shipped him to KC.  Indians should be -185, so let's take this great price with the better team and better pitcher.