Free Pick 4/7/19
Free picks are now 11-5.
Today in MLB:
Chicago Cubs +105 (Hendricks) vs Milwaukee (Davies). Hendricks lifetime FIP 3.55, and his worst year was FIP 3.88. Meanwhile, Davies lifetime FIP 4.03, and his best year was FIP 3.60. So Davies absolute best year was about equal to Hendrick's worst year. Also, the Cubs are 3rd in runs scored, behind the Dodgers and Mariners, so we are getting the better offense and the better pitcher at an underdog price. The public looks at the record of these teams and sees Milwaukee in 1st place and the Cubs with only 2 wins, which is why the books opened Milwaukee as the favorite. The public would bet Milwaukee in this game no matter what the price was, so why give them a fair price? Cubs should be -115, so let's take advantage of the line value.
Today in MLB:
Chicago Cubs +105 (Hendricks) vs Milwaukee (Davies). Hendricks lifetime FIP 3.55, and his worst year was FIP 3.88. Meanwhile, Davies lifetime FIP 4.03, and his best year was FIP 3.60. So Davies absolute best year was about equal to Hendrick's worst year. Also, the Cubs are 3rd in runs scored, behind the Dodgers and Mariners, so we are getting the better offense and the better pitcher at an underdog price. The public looks at the record of these teams and sees Milwaukee in 1st place and the Cubs with only 2 wins, which is why the books opened Milwaukee as the favorite. The public would bet Milwaukee in this game no matter what the price was, so why give them a fair price? Cubs should be -115, so let's take advantage of the line value.
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