Weekend 10/11 - 10/14/19
Free pick wins again yesterday. That's 9 of the last 10 and over 60% since the beginning of this blog in March. You can win even more money by becoming a long-term member. It wouldn't even cost you anything since you're up so much from the free picks. You can also us the links on here for daily or weekly picks. Send an email after you send money so you get the picks right away.
Friday
Nothing worth betting. Might be something added in the morning or afternoon.
Saturday
College Football
Oklahoma -10.5 vs Texas. Might get -10 if you wait to bet.
Washington vs Arizona Over 59
NHL
Washington +100 vs Dallas. Capitals have a Corsi For 182 vs Stars Corsi Against 163 (League wide average is 135). Stars do block over 15 shots per game, but that's because they have a lot of opportunities since they give up so many shots. Stars CF 144 vs Capitals CA 154 with Capitols blocking 12 shots per game, so look for the Stars to get fewer shots than the Capitols. Finally, the Capitols PDO (shooting % + save %) is 98.4 which is extremely low. All teams stay in the 98 - 102 range so teams on the outer edges will regress towards 100. My model gives the Capitols a 57.8% chance of winning, which is a -137 money-line. The +100 price is a 50% chance to win so let's take the 7.8% price advantage.
Sunday
NFL
Cincinnati +12 vs Baltimore. Anything +10.5 or better is good.
LA Rams -3 -120 vs San Francisco
Monday
MLB
Washington -125 vs St Louis. You all know the xFIP's and advanced pitching metrics for these guys are off the charts good. Those metrics put this price at Nats -157 so there is a 5.5% advantage in price. Many times the playoffs comes down to who is hot at the right time, and the Nats have been hot for a month. But the Cards can't hit at all lately and I don't think facing Strasburg is going to help them get out of their slump.
Friday
Nothing worth betting. Might be something added in the morning or afternoon.
Saturday
College Football
Oklahoma -10.5 vs Texas. Might get -10 if you wait to bet.
Washington vs Arizona Over 59
NHL
Washington +100 vs Dallas. Capitals have a Corsi For 182 vs Stars Corsi Against 163 (League wide average is 135). Stars do block over 15 shots per game, but that's because they have a lot of opportunities since they give up so many shots. Stars CF 144 vs Capitals CA 154 with Capitols blocking 12 shots per game, so look for the Stars to get fewer shots than the Capitols. Finally, the Capitols PDO (shooting % + save %) is 98.4 which is extremely low. All teams stay in the 98 - 102 range so teams on the outer edges will regress towards 100. My model gives the Capitols a 57.8% chance of winning, which is a -137 money-line. The +100 price is a 50% chance to win so let's take the 7.8% price advantage.
Sunday
NFL
Cincinnati +12 vs Baltimore. Anything +10.5 or better is good.
LA Rams -3 -120 vs San Francisco
Monday
MLB
Washington -125 vs St Louis. You all know the xFIP's and advanced pitching metrics for these guys are off the charts good. Those metrics put this price at Nats -157 so there is a 5.5% advantage in price. Many times the playoffs comes down to who is hot at the right time, and the Nats have been hot for a month. But the Cards can't hit at all lately and I don't think facing Strasburg is going to help them get out of their slump.
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