5K Documented Picks

I've reached 5K documented picks with a 1.5% ROI on Pickmonitor.com.   Nobody else is above 1% ROI with 5K picks.   For those that don't know, the ROI is how much you expect to make on each bet.  An example: Let's say you bet $100 per game and have a long-term ROI of 1.5%.  That means your expectation is to make $1.50 on every bet - doesn't matter if the bet wins or loses.  If you make 2500 bets in a year, your annual profit expectation is $3750. 

About 99% of people who bet on sports have a negative ROI, which means they are long-term losers.  Let's consider a guy who bets only standard -110 bets and wins 50% of his bets.  His ROI is -4.76%.  So he will lose $4.76 on every bet he makes - again it doesn't matter if the bet wins or loses.  At 2500 bets in a year, he will lose -$11,900.   His winning percentage would have to increase to 52.4% to break even in a year. 

So what long-term ROI do pro's have?  The very best in the world, less than 1% of sports bettors, have a long-term ROI in the neighborhood of 2%.  If you calculate it by individual sports, there are guys with higher ROI's in a particular sport.  Mine is much higher in basketball for example.  Others might be higher in football. 

What bet size is needed to make a living?  A 1K average bet with a 2% ROI and 2500 bets a year is $50K per year.  Some people might be able to live on that.  But 3K average bet would be $150K per year, a comfortable living for most.  Also, even a down year of 1% ROI would still produce $75K.

This is why pro's don't bet low limit stuff like Team Totals, 1st Quarters, Player Props, etc.  There's no book that takes more than 1K on these bets.  Some might not take 500 bucks.  So if you see a guy claiming to be a professional bettor and he's giving out low limit bets, then you know he's full of it. 

Oh man nobody said there was gonna be math, my brain hurts Eppley, just give me a free winner.

NHL
Washington -113 vs Philadelphia

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