Free NHL Pick 9/25/20
Baseball was 3-1 yesterday. Also an NFL winner on the Dolphins.
9/25/20 5:05PM Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars +134
8:59am Risked 1 unit to win 1.34
8:59am Risked 1 unit to win 1.34
Tampa should be -114, a 53.3% chance to win, so they are obviously way overpriced as they have been the whole series. Dallas +134 is a 42.7% chance to win, but the actual chance is 46.7% so we get a 4% edge in price. If you wait closer to game time, it's possible you might get +140 as the public almost certainly will bet Tampa at any price.
One of the most difficult things sports bettors struggle to learn is understanding why you're making a bet that's more likely to lose than to win. Nearly all recreational bettors just bet the team they think is probably going to win, but pro's bet the value in numbers to gain a long-term advantage. If this game were played 1000 times under the exact same circumstances, Tampa would win 533 times and at -153 would lose -$11,863.12 per $100 bet. Dallas would win 467 times and at +134 would win +$9278 per $100 bet.
Recreational bettors try to figure out which team is going to win today, but pro's just look for value in the lines and prices. If you want to win in the long-term, learn to bet numbers and not teams.
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