Free NCAAB Pick 3/18/22
True lines (what the line should be)
Davidson vs Michigan State pk
Cal State Fullerton vs Duke -22
Miami vs USC -2
Jacksonville State vs Auburn -21.5
Iowa State vs LSU -5
Colgate vs Wisconsin -11.5
Virginia Tech vs Texas -2.5
Yale vs Purdue -20.5
Chattanooga vs Illinois -8
Loyola Chicago vs Ohio State +1.5
Delaware vs Villanova -22
Notre Dame vs Alabama -4
Montana State vs Texas Tech -21
Wright State vs Arizona -28
TCU vs Seton Hall pk
UAB vs Houston -12.5
Once you know what the true line should be, then you factor in things that math can't quantify. Such as injuries, travel and schedule, and motivation. Many times for a team to cover a large number, it needs to stay motivated throughout the game and have a desire to win by as many as possible. Will the coach pull out his regular players early with a 20 point lead? Different coaches have different philosophies. It doesn't matter what you think the coach and players should do, but instead it's your job to predict what the coach will do based on previous decisions he's made. All this plus much more is part of handicapping.
There's guys who have no idea what the line should be and claim they are looking at "other things" besides the math. Then there's the guys who put the time and effort into making their own numbers, but then do nothing else. Both are wrong. Handicapping involves many factors, which is why most fail to win.
Join a proven long-term winner and I'll do all the work. You just bet the games and make money.
757 Jacksonville State +15.5 vs Auburn
Comments
Post a Comment