Free MLB Pick 4/8/22

 

So you're follow a social media "expert" handicapper who has a 5 unit max play.  I'm sure he also has a dozen fire emojis and a whole bunch of explanation points to show you just how serious he is.  He probably also claims he's 7-2 on his big 5 unit max plays.  As if 9 picks means anything.  

The biggest red flag that this "expert" is anything but an expert is his statement about a 5 unit pick.  Here's a secret you will only hear from someone who really does win long-term betting on sports: pro's don't use unit sizes.  All bets are max bets.  If the bet has value, why would you bet anything less than the max?  If the bet doesn't have value, why would you bet anything at all?   So determine what amount you wish to bet and that's what you bet on every game.  Generally 1% of bankroll, but never ever more than 2%.  If God himself told you the final score in advance, bet 2% of bankroll.  

Some pro's may bet different amount on different sports, but the bet is the same within each sport.  Also, some may use a version of Kelly Criterion to adjust up when winning and down when losing.  But any version of Kelly will wipe out your bankroll if you are not making value bets with a long-term edge.  

But Eppley, 90% of twitter cappers use different unit sizes.  Yep, all losers.  They have no clue what value is.  What they are attempting to do is overcome their disadvantage by raising the bet size.  Similar to what a casino gambler does when playing a game with a negative expected value.  It doesn't work in the casino, and it doesn't work betting on sports.  

Stop wasting your time and money with the social media crowd. Come join me and start winning long-term like a pro.  

MLB

Baltimore (Means) vs Tampa Bay (McClanahan) Over 7.5 -109 

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