Free NHL Pick 4/9/22

 

Yesterday I wrote about one way to know a social media "expert" is really just a guesser who in the long-term will lose.  Today I'll give you another sign that indicates he isn't a pro bettor.  

The social media betting "experts" think giving a long detailed analysis of why they made the pick is showing what a great "handicapper" they are.  It's actually the opposite.  Anyone who starts telling you about a team's recent record is not a pro. They will say this team is 5-1 in their last 6, they are hot and that's why I bet them!  Of course they probably use a dozen more explanation points to really impress you.  A team's recent record is meaningless, it's not even a consideration. This is the gambling fallacy of recency bias, which is favoring recent outcomes over historical ones.  Maybe you've heard the public bets on what they last saw.  That's true, and it's another example of recency bias.  

Now the opposite of recency bias is when our "expert" tells you a team is 9-2 the last 11 times they played this particular opponent.  Of course add in some emojis because that's really important (successful grown men don't use emojis).  Now that 9-2 record goes back 5 years or 10 years.  What in the hell does a game played many years ago have to do with today's game?  The players are different.  Even if some players are still on the team, they are 5 years older and no longer the same player.  This is an example of not understanding statistical correlation.  If you eat an apple in the morning and the Yankees win that night, then do it again the next 3 days with the Yankees winning each day, the two events have nothing to do with each other.  But our "expert" will likely go on social media and declare his 100% baseball system has a 5 unit play today.  

So using recent results isn't helpful and using historical results isn't helpful, so how do you handicap?  Well 99% of people betting on sports don't know the answer.  Some find out the answer and either they don't want to do the work, or they don't have the skills to do it.  But most are completely clueless. 

Let me do the work for you.  I'm one of a very few who actually does this for a living.  The last 5 years all picks are documented online.  That's over 10K picks with a winning record.  Never a losing year.  No 1st quarter bets, no team totals, no player props or any other small market nonsense.  I have another post from years ago explaining why pro's don't bet that crap.  No parlays, no gimmicks of any kind.  Just thousands of value bets that will produce profit in the long-term. 

NHL

Vancouver -137 vs San Jose