EPL & UFC 4/5/2025

 

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Free Pick 10/29/19

Free picks went 4-3 over the weekend.  Hope everyone made some money. Anyone who bought a single day of picks and lost, send me an email and I'll give you a week for free to make up for it.  Ok, I know everyone just wants the free pick so let's get right to it. NHL Washington +100 vs Toronto.  The Capitals xGF : xGA is 6.4 : 5.4, but the Leafs is exactly the opposite 5.4 : 6.4.  The biggest difference is the Capitals block over 14 shots per game, which is terrific defense, while the Leafs block only 10.  The Leafs also have a save percentage under 89%, so the combination of not blocking a lot of shots and not saving a high percentage makes it pretty clear why their xGA is 6.4.  Line should be -138, but the public seems to love the Leafs, so let's take the generous even money price on the Capitals, who should score a bunch. 
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