NFL 12/14/2025

 




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Free Pick 10/29/19

Free picks went 4-3 over the weekend.  Hope everyone made some money. Anyone who bought a single day of picks and lost, send me an email and I'll give you a week for free to make up for it.  Ok, I know everyone just wants the free pick so let's get right to it. NHL Washington +100 vs Toronto.  The Capitals xGF : xGA is 6.4 : 5.4, but the Leafs is exactly the opposite 5.4 : 6.4.  The biggest difference is the Capitals block over 14 shots per game, which is terrific defense, while the Leafs block only 10.  The Leafs also have a save percentage under 89%, so the combination of not blocking a lot of shots and not saving a high percentage makes it pretty clear why their xGA is 6.4.  Line should be -138, but the public seems to love the Leafs, so let's take the generous even money price on the Capitals, who should score a bunch. 
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5K Documented Picks

I've reached 5K documented picks with a 1.5% ROI on Pickmonitor.com.   Nobody else is above 1% ROI with 5K picks.   For those that don't know, the ROI is how much you expect to make on each bet.  An example: Let's say you bet $100 per game and have a long-term ROI of 1.5%.  That means your expectation is to make $1.50 on every bet - doesn't matter if the bet wins or loses.  If you make 2500 bets in a year, your annual profit expectation is $3750.  About 99% of people who bet on sports have a negative ROI, which means they are long-term losers.  Let's consider a guy who bets only standard -110 bets and wins 50% of his bets.  His ROI is -4.76%.  So he will lose $4.76 on every bet he makes - again it doesn't matter if the bet wins or loses.  At 2500 bets in a year, he will lose -$11,900.   His winning percentage would have to increase to 52.4% to break even in a year.  So what long-term ROI do pro's have?  ...
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Free NFL Pick 10/25/20

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  A disappointing day in college football yesterday.   It's one of those days I don't think I would bet anything different if I had to do it again because I beat the closing line in nearly every game, and by 3+ points in many games.  In the long run, that will produce profit.   You can always check my documented record at Pickmonitor that proves it.  A wild finish to the baseball game yesterday.  I didn't have a play on the game, but that 9th inning probably had everyone upset at some point.  And Jansen on the mound again, what are the Dodgers thinking?   I have at least 6 NFL bets today.  The line has moved significantly in 4 of them, which is encouraging for a possible big day.  I'll use a game that hasn't moved much as the free play. NFL Cleveland -3  -120 vs Cincinnati
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