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Basketball  picks documented on Pickmonitor.com Any questions EppleySports@gmail.com Free NHL pick: Chicago +100 vs Winnipeg.  The Blackhawks still have a chance, albeit a slim chance, to make the playoffs.  They should play with desperation and urgency, while Winnipeg is comfortably in the playoffs and have mailed in their last 3 games.  My model has Chicago with a 53.1% to win, which is -113 so there's about 3% line value.

Basketball picks documented at  Pickmonitor Any questions about rates or subscriptions EppleySports@gmail.com Free picks on a 8-1 run.  Lets's keep it going with: Kentucky -4.5 vs Auburn.  Auburn shot the lights out of the building against North Carolina, so don't anticipate an encore.  While Auburn had all week to prepare for North Carolina, they only have 2 days to prepare for Kentucky. Bruce Pearl is possibly the worst coach in college basketball, so I don't see any great game plan being developed.  Meanwhile, Calipari is one of the best and will have a plan to slow the tempo and make it a half court game, which Auburn is awful at playing.  These teams just played about a month ago, and Kentucky slaughtered Auburn by 27 points.  The talent level isn't even close with Kentucky having 3 guys that most likely will be picked in the top 5 NBA draft.  Assuming Auburn doesn't shoot 67% from 3's in the 2nd half again, Kentucky should win and cover easily.

Basketball picks documented  here Any questions EppleySports@gmail.com Saturday free picks: Premier League Leicester City -125 vs Bournemouth. MLB Cleveland (Bauer) -112 vs Minnesota (Odorizzi)

Basketball  picks documented at Pickmonitor.   The next few weeks there will be a limited amount of picks as the season comes to an end.  But things will pick up again when the playoffs start in a few weeks. Any questions EppleySports@gmail.com Kentucky -2.5 vs Houston.  I have the true line should be -5, so there's some line value.  Kentucky certainly is the more talented team with at least 3 guys headed to the NBA.  As long as Houston doesn't make a bunch of 3's, Kentucky should have no problem here.

The last couple weeks of the NBA season normally sees a reduction in the volume of bets because teams that are eliminated from the playoffs will play their younger players more minutes.  Every day another team is eliminated.  Then there's teams who are comfortably locked in to their playoff position, so they start to rest star players for the playoffs.  One battle that will probably go to the last day of the season is the race to avoid the 8th spot in the West.  Obviously nobody wants to play the Warriors in the first round. Opening day of baseball free pick: St Louis +100 (Mikolas) vs Milwaukee (Chacin).  Big advantage in starting pitching for the Cardinals, and they have the better bullpen.  Both teams very good hitting teams, but I have the Cardinals rated slightly higher.  True line should be -131 so getting the Cardinals at +100 is good line value. Baseball spreadsheet  with theoretical 10K starting bankroll and recalculating bet percentages every day.

I explained earlier that you shouldn't ever risk more than 1% on any game.  So a bankroll of 10K would be a $100 maximum bet.  If you like to use different levels of betting, then always reduce the first level below 1%.  So if you have 1 unit bets and 2 unit bets, the 1 unit might be 0.5% and the 2 unit bets 1%.  But should your maximum bet always be $100 with a 10K bankroll?  What you want to do is raise your bet when you're winning and lower it when you're losing.  You can do this by recalculating your 1% every day.  Example: 10K bank, 1%=100 bet.  You bet 3 games at -115, +105, +130.  In yesterday's post I explained how to bet these games.  So you would bet 100 to win 86.96 at -115, 114.29 to win 120 at +105, 92.31 to win 120 at +130.  Let's say they all win for a total of +326.96. Now your bankroll is 10,326.96, so 1%=103.27.  So you would bet 103.27 on any favorite.  But don't forget to add your 20% to small underdogs so you would bet 107.76 to win 123.

A quick recap.  Example is team A is -120 and team B is +110.  Three ways to bet: 1) Traditional - risk 120 to win 100 on team A or risk 100 to win 110 on team B; 2) Risk same amount - bet 100 on either team; 3) To win same amount - bet to win 100 on either team. For a more detailed explanation, it was covered in an earlier post. So which way is best?  First, let's look at why the traditional way of betting doesn't work,  Let's say you bet 2 games.  Game 1 you bet 120 to win 100 on a favorite, and game 2 you bet 100 to win 110 on an underdog.  If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you break even.  If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you lose -10.  So the only way for you to win is for both games to win. But now let's say you bet the same 2 games using method #2 above.  So now you bet 100 to win 83.33 on the favorite and 100 to win  110 on the dog.  If the favorite wins and the dog loses, you lose -16.67.  If the dog wins and the favorite loses, you win +