EppleySports

Another winning day in baseball yesterday, so let's find a winner on today's very short schedule. MLB Cincinnati -115 (Mahle, xFIP 3.82) vs Milwaukee (Houser, xFIP 3.28).  Mahle's K:BB ratio is 4:1 and Houser's is slightly over 2:1.  Houser walks 11% which is just way too many.  As I mentioned yesterday, the Reds have an advantage in the bullpen.  And home teams have dominated in NL Central games. 

The Phillies couldn't hold a 6-1 lead yesterday so the free pick winning streak ended, but overall it was another winning day in baseball.  You can click on the baseball link above for this seasons results.  Sunday baseball: MLB Cincinnati +100 (DeSclafani, xFIP 4.44) vs Cubs (Lester, xFIP 4.09).  Starting pitching is equal in this game, but the Reds have the best bullpen in the National League and the Cubs bullpen ranks near the bottom.  Also, the Cubs are lousy 16-22 on the road, even worse in division games.  In fact, not one team in the NL Central has a winning record on the road.   Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds are all going to stay near .500 until the end of the season.  ESPN will tell you it's because they are all good teams, but it's the opposite - none of them are good teams.  As a general rule, you should look to bet on any home underdogs within this division unless there's an obvious pitching advantage.

Another winning day yesterday.  Let's keep it going with some afternoon baseball and evening fights. MLB Philadelphia -125 (Eflin, xFIP 4.74) vs Miami (Yamamoto, xFIP 4.60).  Yamamoto has started 3 games and has an ERA 0.95 so the public will be all over Miami in this game.  But his xFIP is 4.60 so we know he's not nearly as good as everyone thinks.  Consider these underlying numbers:  BABIP .167, HR% 0, BB% 11, GB% 33.  So he's a fly ball pitcher who hasn't given up a home run yet.  That will change.  He also walks a lot of guys, so those home runs probably won't be solo shots.  And his BABIP will regress to .300 like all pitchers eventually do.  Look for Philly to score a bunch. UFC Last week I mentioned it was a card full of favorites, and that turned out to be the case.  This week there's some underdogs worth betting. Marco  Polo Reyes +290 vs Drew Dober Jussier Formiga +140 vs Joseph Benavidez

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.44  Toronto Blue Jays -113  vs Kansas City Royals Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  UNDER 7.5 -107  vs New York Mets Risked 0.67 units to win 0.51  New York Mets -131  vs Atlanta Braves Risked 0.5 units to win 0.5  UNDER 10 -100  vs Detroit Tigers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.51  UNDER 7.5 +102  vs Tampa Bay Rays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  UNDER 9 +106  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.33 units to win 0.67  Seattle Mariners +203  vs Houston Astros Risked 0.67 units to win 0.33  Los Angeles Dodgers -206  vs Colorado Rockies Risked 0.5 units to win 0.49  OVER 8 -102  vs San Francisco Giants Risked 0.5 units to win 0.48  San Francisco Giants -104  vs Arizona Diamondbacks These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor  

The Padres won easily yesterday, let's try to find another easy winner today. MLB Washington -190 (Strasburg, xFIP 3.21) vs Miami (Alcantara, xFIP 5.06).  Strasburg is one of the best in baseball with K% 29 and GB% 52.  Alcantara is awful with K% 16 and BB% 11.  Any pitcher with less than 2:1 ratio of K:BB is worth fading.  The Nationals have been red hot lately and there's nothing to suggest they get slowed down here. 

Wednesday afternoon baseball. MLB San Diego -145 (Strahm, xFIP 4.75) vs Baltimore (Bundy, xFIP 4.60).  Well the Orioles are awful, we all know that.  But in this game we have Bundy with a GB% 36 and 17% of fly balls are home runs off of him.  So lots of fly balls, and lots of those are home runs.  The Padres bats have been hot, no reason to think they cool off here.  Strahm is pretty good with a K 21% and BB 5%.  He doesn't need to be great, just pitch reasonably well and the Padres should win comfortably. 

I'm still trying to figure out how the Padres blow a 3-run lead in the 9th, then blow another 3-run lead in the 11th.  Yates, the Padres closer, had given up 4 runs the whole year.  Then gives up 3 in the 9th yesterday.   While that was going on, the Nationals and Giants both lost in extra innings.  And the Mets bullpen blows the win for deGrom for an absolutely brutal day. Well can't do anything but put it behind us, so let's look at today: MLB Cleveland -150 (Plutko, xFIP 5.03) vs Kansas City (Keller, xFIP 5.05).   There's one major difference between these pitchers.  Plutko K 20%, BB 3%.  Keller K 16%, BB 11%.   Plutko's K:BB ratio is nearly 7:1 while Keller's in less than 2:1.    Bet the Tribe with 2 fistfulls (not more than 1% of your bankroll of course)