EppleySports

  EPL now on a 5-0 streak.  Basketball was 5-2 yesterday. Free picks are on a 23-7 run. NHL Ottawa +174 vs Toronto 

  NHL starts today.  Different divisions, less travel, no fans or few fans, but it's still the best hockey in the world.   NHL Philadelphia -116 vs Pittsburgh.  I bet this at -110

  NFL football this week went 6-4, college football went 4-2.  Baseball was 2-0 yesterday to finish a profitable baseball season. 2020 Baseball season finished 115-88 for +9 units on a 0.5 unit scale.  So it would be +18 units on a 1 unit per bet scale.   There should be some more playoff bets than usual with 8 teams from each league getting in.   Become a season long member for football season, still a lot of football to be played.  The Big 10 and PAC 12 are going to have shortened seasons, but at least they are playing.   NHL Dallas +148 vs Tampa Bay

  Baseball was 3-1 yesterday.  Also an NFL winner on the Dolphins.   9/25/20 5:00PM Middle Tennessee State vs UTSA 9/23 9:55pm   9/25/20 5:05PM Tampa Bay Lightning vs Dallas Stars Dallas Stars +134 8:59am  Risked 1 unit to win 1.34 Tampa should be -114, a 53.3% chance to win, so they are obviously way overpriced as they have been the whole series.  Dallas +134 is a 42.7% chance to win, but the actual chance is 46.7% so we get a 4% edge in price.   If you wait closer to game time, it's possible you might get +140 as the public almost certainly will bet Tampa at any price.  One of the most difficult things sports bettors struggle to learn is understanding why you're making a bet that's more likely to lose than to win.  Nearly all recreational bettors just bet the team they think is probably going to win, but pro's bet the value in numbers to gain a long-term advantage.  If this game were played 1000 times under the exact same circumstances, Tampa would win 533 times and a

  For some NFL free picks, check out Pickmonitor's YouTube channel.  There's a bunch on there.  Link is in the previous post on here, or you can search Pickmonitor on YouTube and it will come right up.  If you want all of today's NFL and MLB, just use the daily pay link on here and every pick will be sent to you.   The best and cheapest route is to become a season long member and get every pick in every sport.  Send an email to get started.   Hockey is on a 3 game winning streak, let's keep it going and make it the free pick for today. NHL NY Islanders +127 vs Tampa Bay

  Team S% SV% PDO CF CA CF% xGF xGA aGF aGA axDiff SCF SCA SCF% HDF HDA HDF% HDGF HDC% HDGA HDCO% Tampa Bay Lightning 10.5 .916 102.1 2608 2368 52.4 147.7 136.9 160 122 27 1331 1182 53.0 206 137 60.1 36 14.9 23 14.4 League Average 9.2 .908 2576 2576 143.9 143.9 139 139 1281 1281 203 203 33 14.0 33 13.9 Team S% SV% PDO CF CA CF% xGF xGA aGF aGA axDiff SCF SCA SCF% HDF HDA HDF% HDGF HDC% HDGA HDCO% New York Islanders 9.0 .913 100.3 2467 2840 46.5 150.2 150.6 128 133 -5 1295 1336 49.2 235 227 50.9 39 14.2 34 13.0 League Average 9.2 .908 2576 2576 143.9 143.9 139 139 1281 1281 203 203 33 14.0 33 13.9 NY Islanders vs Tampa Bay.   Tampa has a high PDO of 102.1, which tells us they have had luck on their side.  That luck can be seen in their goals scored on High Danger chances, which is well above league average.  This also increases their shooting percentage, which is 1.3% above league average.  Look for regression in this series.  The Islanders PDO of 100.3 tells us their statistics indicat

  The last 10 days in the NHL: Hockey: 5 - 4, +2.01 units Time Pick Units Risked Units Won 9/3/20 6:50PM [24] Vancouver Canucks +205 1 2.05 9/2/20 5:10PM [20] Dallas Stars +110 1 -1 9/1/20 4:10PM [16] Philadelphia Flyers +106 1 1.06 8/31/20 6:50PM [14] Colorado Avalanche -132 1 0.76 8/30/20 7:45PM [10] Vancouver Canucks +179 1 -1 8/30/20 3:11PM [6] Dallas Stars +113 1 1.13 8/29/20 6:53PM [28] Vancouver Canucks +171 1 -1 8/27/20 6:48PM [20] Vancouver Canucks +168 1 0 8/26/20 7:45PM [14] Dallas Stars +120 1 -1 8/25/20 4:10PM [6] Tampa Bay Lightning +101 1 1.01 NHL Colorado -128 vs Dallas Bonus Pick There's no line yet on Game 7 Vancouver vs Vegas.   The Canucks are a good bet at +170 or better.

  The EPL and the NFL start in a couple weeks.  Become a member and get every pick for the whole season.  The rest of the NHL, NBA, and MLB playoffs are included. Every pick is documented on Pickmonitor.  Click the link at the top of the home screen to view every pick since 2017. Last 10 days in the NHL: Hockey: 5 - 3, +2.48 units Time Pick Units Risked Units Won 9/1/20 4:10PM [16] Philadelphia Flyers +106 1 1.06 8/31/20 6:50PM [14] Colorado Avalanche -132 1 0.76 8/30/20 7:45PM [10] Vancouver Canucks +179 1 -1 8/30/20 3:11PM [6] Dallas Stars +113 1 1.13 8/29/20 6:53PM [28] Vancouver Canucks +171 1 -1 8/27/20 6:48PM [20] Vancouver Canucks +168 1 0 8/26/20 7:45PM [14] Dallas Stars +120 1 -1 8/25/20 4:10PM [6] Tampa Bay Lightning +101 1 1.01 8/22/20 5:20PM [81] Dallas Stars +152 1 1.52 NHL Dallas +110 vs Colorado 

We are about 2 weeks away from the start of the NHL season, which is one of my favorite sports.  Some guys like to use the Corsi and some like the Fenwick.  And puck heads will argue until the death about which is more important.  But they both can be used in our handicapping to help us get an advantage.  Obviously this could be a lengthy discussion, but the short version is to use a team's Corsi against opponents with weak defenders who don't block a lot of shots, and use a team's Fenwick against opponents with defenders who do block a lot of shots.  So team A with good defenders is playing team B with lousy defenders.  We would use team A's Corsi and team B's Fenwick to determine the expected shot attempts for each team.  But will those shots go in the net?  Once the shot is taken and it gets through the defenders, we need to know the skill level of the goaltender.  One category I like to use is a goaltenders current save percentage versus his lifetime save pe

I've put links to the soccer and NHL picks for those asking to review them.  You will notice many columns are hidden.  It's because these are my personal spreadsheets that have dollar amounts in them.  For a variety of reasons, I don't wish to make the amounts public.  You will also notice I keep spreadsheets by calendar year, not by when a sports season begins.  This is done for tax purposes. What you are able to see is each game bet, the line I bet it at, whether the game won or lost, and a season running ROI.  The line listed is an American money-line, not a decimal.  So 2.00 is not even money, it is +200.  I enter it as 2.00 for formulas in other columns.  For the NHL I added a column with the equivalent decimal odds to clarify this. I will enter soccer picks on Pickmonitor next month when the EPL begins.  I will also enter NHL picks starting this upcoming season. Once the soccer season begins, I will have to remove the spreadsheet link because I will obviously be