EppleySports

We have the Champions League in the afternoon and the NHL playoffs at night.  Plus baseball and mostly meaningless NBA games.  The Pistons need a win against the Knicks in the East, and the Clippers and Spurs want to avoid the 8th spot in the West.  None of the other games matter.  Free Picks: Champions League Barcelona -110 vs Manchester United NHL NY Islanders -105 vs Pittsburgh MLB Tampa Bay -150 (Glasnow) vs White Sox (Lopez)

The NHL playoffs may be the most exciting thing left in sports.  The game gets even more physical than the regular season, the refs don't call many penalties, and it's the last sport remaining with a true sudden death overtime.  To win 1st Round Series: NY Islanders +125 vs Pittsburgh Dallas +160 vs Nashville St Louis -115 vs Winnipeg Carolina +125 vs Washington

Free picks are now 11-5.  Today in MLB: Chicago Cubs +105 (Hendricks) vs Milwaukee (Davies).  Hendricks lifetime FIP 3.55, and his worst year was FIP 3.88.  Meanwhile, Davies lifetime FIP 4.03, and his best year was FIP 3.60.  So Davies absolute best year was about equal to Hendrick's worst year.   Also, the Cubs are 3rd in runs scored, behind the Dodgers and Mariners, so we are getting the better offense and the better pitcher at an underdog price.   The public looks at the record of these teams and sees Milwaukee in 1st place and the Cubs with only 2 wins, which is why the books opened Milwaukee as the favorite.  The public would bet Milwaukee in this game no matter what the price was, so why give them a fair price?  Cubs should be -115, so let's take advantage of the line value. 

Free Picks: Premier League: Newcastle United / Crystal Palace over 2.5 +120.   This should be a wide open game with lots of scoring chances.  Only spectacular goal-keeping can keep this from going over. MLB: San Diego +105 (Paddack) vs St Louis (Wacha).  In 15 starts last year, Wacha had an xFIP 4.12.  This year his FIP is 4.79, xFIP 3.41.  Meanwhile, Paddack had a great first start this year, FIP 0.75, xFIP 2.33.  We get a good price here because the public isn't aware of how good the Padres are yet, and the Cardinals are viewed as division contenders even though their pitching in suspect. 

Today's free pick in the Premier League: Liverpool / Southampton under 2.5 +115.     The public always bets Liverpool games over because of all the offensive weapons they have.  But Liverpool plays a Champions League match in 4 days so don't look for them to be highly motivated or give maximum energy in this match against Southampton.  I think Liverpool does just enough to win and saves as much energy as possible for their Champions match.

Today's free pick in MLB: Cleveland -165  (Bauer) vs Toronto (Sanchez).  Sanchez is the worst of the starting pitchers going on Thursday, so look for Cleveland to end their hitting slump.  The Indians may score enough to reach the Over 7 by themselves.  I'd suggest play both bets individually, no parlays.

MLB free pick: Boston -140 (Eovaldi)  vs Oakland (Estrada).  The Red Sox have been shut out in 2 consecutive games.  A great way to get back on track is to face Estrada who is pure cannon fodder.  Look for the Red Sox offense to explode in this one.