EppleySports

Well the late inning heroics bit us again with the Indians scoring in the 10th and then giving up 2 in the bottom of the 10th, and the Giants blowing one lead after another including the lead in the 8th.   I guess we shouldn't complain as we are still ahead for the year.  See the spreadsheet above. With all the blown leads in late innings this year, I think we are going to see starting pitchers used out of the bullpen in playoff games.  Most playoff teams only use 4 starters, so the 5th starter and the spot starters used during the regular season will be available in the bullpen.  Then situations where the starter from 2 days ago will be used for an inning as that would normally be his throwing day.  It's just something to keep in mind for bullpen ratings in October. Well that's a month away Eppley, I need a winner today. MLB: NY Yankees -110 (Tanaka, xFIP 4.45) vs Oakland (Roark, xFIP 4.56).  Tanaka is above average with a K:BB ratio over 3:1 and a 47 GB%.  Roark is

College football is about a week away.  Members will get an email with season win totals, which are normally very strong and profitable bets.  So send an email to become a member and don't miss anymore winners.  Nobody else is going to make you money in the long-term, so come join a proven winner.  I don't charge anywhere near what the shady touting services do, and unlike them I actually win. Are you interested but skeptical because you've been ripped off by one of these services who charged you thousands and promised the stars and the moon?  Then after losing a fortune, they wanted you to "upgrade" to a level where the picks are better?  Maybe they just disappeared altogether after a season full of losers?  Well let me help.  Send me proof of paying one of these thieves and an explanation of what happened, and I will give you 2 months of picks for free.  That will help you get back some of your losses, and it will give you confidence in me.  I know you will be

Baseball continues to stay hot with another winning day yesterday.  Also, the free picks win again and stay above 60% since the start of this blog back in March.  It's easy to become a member, just send an email and get started with the only long-term winner you're going to find.  I won't charge you thousands like the hype machines who hope to get lucky for a while.  I don't need to because I actually win a lot of money betting the same games I give to you guys.  Yeah, I know, just get to the free winners already: MLB: NY Mets (Wheeler, xFIP 3.88) vs Kansas City (Sparkman, xFIP 5.55) Under 10 -115.  Ron Kulpa working the plate, one of the best Under umpires. EPL: Crystal Palace +200 vs Sheffield United.   Promoted teams generally have a hard time scoring goals against the higher quality competition in the EPL.  Sheffield has the lowest rated attack and will struggle to score all year.  They also have a terrible defense  rated 18th.  Obviously not a good combin

Another winning day in baseball yesterday, check the whole year's results in the spreadsheet link above.   A busy Saturday with EPL, MLB, and preseason NFL. MLB: Dodgers (Ryu, xFIP 3.32) vs Atlanta (Foltynewicz, xFIP 5.06) Under 9.5  +100. EPL: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Over 2.5  -130.    Both defenses are awful with Aston Villa rated 20th and Bournemouth 17th.   The attack of Bournemouth is decent, while Aston's ranks pretty low.  But obviously playing against bad defenses should help both clubs move the ball.  The expected goals in this match is 3.4, so we will take the Over.

Another free Friday for everyone. My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  UNDER 9 +105  vs Philadelphia Phillies Risked 0.5 units to win 0.34  Washington Nationals -148  vs Milwaukee Brewers Risked 0.5 units to win 0.47  UNDER 9 -107  vs Pittsburgh Pirates Risked 0.5 units to win 0.6  Pittsburgh Pirates +119  vs Chicago Cubs Risked 0.5 units to win 0.49  UNDER 8 -103  vs Tampa Bay Rays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.28  Colorado Rockies -181  vs Miami Marlins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.27  Houston Astros -183  vs Oakland Athletics These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

A short baseball card on Thursday, but things will start getting pretty busy with soccer just started and football getting ready.  MLB: NY Mets +110 (Stroman, xFIP 4.02) vs Atlanta (Teheran, xFIP 5.20).  Subscribers and regular readers probably know how bad Teheran is because we bet against him often.  A xFIP over 5.00, a K:BB ratio barely 2:1, and he walks 11% of hitters.  Stroman is one of my favorites with a low xFIP, a K:BB ratio 3:1, and a GB 55% which is top 3 in all of baseball.  I know Atlanta has been extremely lucky, but there's no way to quantify that.  The Braves bullpen is so horrid that only the Rockies bullpen has given up more runs since the all-star break.  And the Braves lead the league in runs scored in the 8th and 9th innings, which is a statistic usually reserved for bad teams because good teams don't bat in the 9th very often.  The Braves are the most over-rated team in baseball and I still believe they will fade down the stretch. 

Expected goals is a calculation based on scoring chances, which identifies the angle and speed of the shot and the positions of the defenders plus the chance the goalkeeper had of making a save.  There are other variables, but identifying which team has the highest degree of expected goals has a statistical correlation to which team will win the game.   Obviously if a team has a higher expected goals and they are a plus money underdog, there is long-term value in betting these teams.  There's a price comparison that identifies such value that is too lengthy to explain here.  I just wanted to give you a quick peek at my philosophy of handicapping soccer games. Of course there will be games where the team that graded the best in expected goals (EG) doesn't win the game.  In the first week of the EPL, we somehow lost 3 of these games.  Bournemouth won EG 1.7 - 1.43, Southampton won EG 1.19 - 1.01, and Everton won EG 1.32 - 0.87 with 10 men.  I know it sucks to lose, but these ar