Posts

Free Pick 9/27/19

The last week of baseball season is usually rather boring as most games don't mean anything.  But the Nationals beat the Phillies 5 straight to reach 90 wins and go over their season win total, and the White Sox lost to stay under their season win total.  Overall season wins totals went 7-3 for another profitable year. The NHL starts next week, so expect some season point totals to be sent soon, probably Sunday or Monday.  I always like to wait to make sure there's not an injury during preseason.   NBA starts about a week after the NHL so anticipate some season win totals just before the season starts. Remember you can become a member at any time, just send an email to get started.  Also, you can use the pay links on here to get whatever day or week of bets you'd like.  I know everyone has been missing the free winners, but there just wasn't much to bet this week with baseball in its final days and not much else going on. Friday: Arizona State +4.5 vs Californ

Free Pick 9/23/19

Well the weekend was a mixed bag with Saturday being disappointing but Sunday being great.  There were a few games that easily should have gone our way but didn't.  The worst was on Friday when FIU was down 5 and kicking off with under a minute remaining.  LA Tech returns the on-side kick for a TD and beats us.  The USC game and Louisville game also should have been in our win column, but it didn't happen.  When a bad weekend is just losing a few units, that's still a good sign when it took some miracle endings to beat us.  For those that bought just the weekend picks on Saturday or Sunday, you had a nice win.  But those that bought on Friday, I know you came up a little short so send me an email and I'll give you next week free.  Baseball is on a nice 5 day run and closing the season strong.  For season win totals, I need everyone to be a Washington Nationals fan this week.  I need them to go 5-3 in their remaining 8 games.  They have 5 against the Phillies and 3 a

Weekend 9/20/19 - 9/22/19

If you want all the games this weekend, just use the buy button on the side.  If you just want Saturday's games, you can buy just that day.  If you want longer subscriptions, just email me. Friday EPL: Southampton +115 vs Bournemouth.   Bournemouth and West Ham have the worst defenses in the EPL.   That might be a hint who I bet on Sunday.  Southampton's attack ranks only  behind Man City and Tottenham, so they should be a strong favorite here.   Expected goals are 2.6 - 1.1.  Saturday EPL: Burnley vs Norwich Under 2.5 +120.    Two below average defenses, but also two lousy attacking offenses.   Expected goals 1.1 - 0.9.  First team to score probably wins 1-0. College Football: Louisville +7 or 6.5 vs Florida State.  Hard to believe Florida State could beat anybody by a touchdown. South Alabama +11 vs UAB.  UAB not impressive at all, barely beating Alabama State and Akron.  South Alabama stayed in the game at Nebraska, I think they do the same here.  Sunday NFL:

Free Pick 9/18/19

Just some quick free picks for you today. Whew no reading or math quizzes today, just right to the free winners! Champions League: Real Madrid vs PSG Under 3 -105.   All the firepower will be on the sidelines for this match.  Neymar, Mbappe, and Cavani all out for PSG, and Isco and Modric out for Real.  Hazard might play but it's his first game back so his fitness is questionable.   These clubs aren't known for trying to defend a one goal lead, but whoever scores first may do just that.    MLB: Washington -160 (Scherzer, xFIP 2.97) vs St. Louis (Wainwright, xFIP 4.46).  Nationals in must-win mode the rest of the way.  Nobody I'd rather have on the mound than Mad Max. 

NHL Handicapping

We are about 2 weeks away from the start of the NHL season, which is one of my favorite sports.  Some guys like to use the Corsi and some like the Fenwick.  And puck heads will argue until the death about which is more important.  But they both can be used in our handicapping to help us get an advantage.  Obviously this could be a lengthy discussion, but the short version is to use a team's Corsi against opponents with weak defenders who don't block a lot of shots, and use a team's Fenwick against opponents with defenders who do block a lot of shots.  So team A with good defenders is playing team B with lousy defenders.  We would use team A's Corsi and team B's Fenwick to determine the expected shot attempts for each team.  But will those shots go in the net?  Once the shot is taken and it gets through the defenders, we need to know the skill level of the goaltender.  One category I like to use is a goaltenders current save percentage versus his lifetime save pe

Free Picks 9/14/19 - 9/16/19

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$50 Weekend Soccer / Football Since many of the football lines have moved for today's games, you will get this weekends games and next weekends games for $50.  Just click the buy button.  Next weekends games will start to be available on Monday so you can get the best lines.  You also get all the EPL soccer picks for today and next week. EPL: Leicester vs Manchester United Under 2.5 -105 College: New Mexico +34 vs Notre Dame UNLV +18.5 vs Northwestern NFL Sunday: Indianapolis vs Tennessee Under 43.5 NFL Monday: Cleveland -2.5 vs NY Jets Added Saturday night: I bet this game earlier in the week and didn't realize how much it moved when I originally wrote this. Obviously don't bet Cleveland at -6.5.  Added Sunday night, a game to replace the Browns game: MLB Monday: NY Mets -150 (Matz, xFIP 4.26) vs Colorado (Senzatela, xFIP 5.20) 

Free Pick 9/13/19

Free pick won again yesterday.   Ready to become a member?  Just send an email to get started. I know some of you are looking for this weekends football, but I can't sell that this weekend because the lines have all moved a lot.  You would not be able to get anywhere near the lines I got earlier in the week, so it wouldn't be right to sell those games now.  But that's why you need to become a member so you can get the early lines.  Ok, I know, everyone wants another winner. MLB: Washington -160 (Scherzer, xFIP 2.91) vs Atlanta (Soroka, xFIP 3.86).  Scherzer is the best there is with a xFIP under 3 and a K:BB 7:1 which is off the charts outstanding.  If there was one game you had to win and could pick any pitcher on the planet, I'd take Scherzer.   Soroka has a K:BB just over 3:1 which is good but he has a BABIP .280 so regression is coming.   Sometimes things are as they appear and you can't over think things, getting Max Scherzer at a price less than -200 i