EppleySports

Sunday afternoon baseball. MLB NY Mets -115 (deGrom, xFIP 3.27) vs Cubs (Hamels, xFIP 3.90).   Hamels has a 2.85 ERA, but his xFIP is a full run higher, so he's been getting lucky.  It's not that he's a bad pitcher at 3.90, but deGrom is one of the best in baseball.  And we get a good price because the public loves the Cubs.

Baseball and UFC today.  Let's make it a winning Saturday. MLB Cincinnati -105 (Castillo, xFIP 3.65) vs Milwaukee (Chacin, xFIP 5.62).   As some of you know, I bet the Reds to win the division at the beginning of the year.  After a slow start, they are starting to play like contenders.  But the public still hasn't caught on that the Brewers aren't very good and the Reds are much better than their record suggests.  So we get a great price on the better team and a huge advantage on the mound.  Castillo is my favorite type of pitcher, K 29% and GB 57%.  That means very few fly balls, which obviously limits home runs and extra base hits.  Then there's Chacin who is my favorite type of pitcher to bet against, K 18%, BB 11%, GB 34%.  Notice K:BB ratio is less than 2:1 which is awful.  Then there's lots of fly balls.  So lots of walks and fly balls generally equals 3-run homers.  Cincy's bats should stay hot and score a bunch. UFC Kevin Holland -220 vs Alessio Di

My Tracked Plays Risked 0.5 units to win 0.53  UNDER 8.5 +106  vs Pittsburgh Pirates Risked 0.5 units to win 0.45  LAA Angels -110  vs St. Louis Cardinals Risked 0.67 units to win 0.88  Kansas City Royals +132  vs Minnesota Twins Risked 0.5 units to win 0.44  UNDER 7.5 -114  vs Los Angeles Dodgers These plays are being tracked under the username  EppleySports  at Pick Monitor

I'm not one to spend much time promoting myself on Pickmonitor or on any social media, but I wanted to mention an accomplishment I thought would give all of you even more confidence that you're following one of the very few people who actually wins long-term.  I'm 1 of only 3 on Pickmonitor to make 4K picks with an ROI > 1%.   Tens of thousands of accounts and you won't find any active account with a better record.  Feel free to tell your friends. As good as that is, consider that's with the baseball record all screwed up due to years of not grading pitching changes correctly.  That's why I have a link to a baseball spreadsheet listed above so there's an accurate record.  Notice baseball is down -0.90% this year but certainly recovering from a lousy start.  It's a long season, the profit will come. Well enough self-promotion crap, what have you done for me today! MLB San Diego -105 (Strahm, xFIP 4.65) vs Milwaukee (Davies, xFIP 4.90).  Davies h

Baseball is on a nice winning streak right now, check the spreadsheet above for every game this season. I know the Mets let us down yesterday, but we're going right back on them today. MLB NY Mets -120 (deGrom, xFIP 3.26) vs Atlanta (Teheran, xFIP 4.93).  Teheran has an xFIP 2 runs higher than his ERA.  So he's not nearly as good as the public thinks he is.  One of the main reason for the disparity is his walk rate over 11%.  You can't keep putting guys on base and expect to constantly pitch out of trouble.  But because of public perception that Teheran is good and the Braves are great, we are getting a terrific price on one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

Baseball today: MLB NY Mets +140 (Wheeler, xFIP 3.85) vs Atlanta (Soroka, xFIP 3.57).   Of course the public will love the Braves in this game because they have a better record and the perceived better pitcher with a 1.92 ERA.  Soroka has been pretty damn lucky as his xFIP of 1.5 runs higher than his ERA indicates.  One of the underlying components is his .242 BABIP, which means balls will start to fall in for hits soon enough.  That obviously will lead to more runs.  I'll also mention the Braves as a team have been extremely lucky so far.  Like Soroka, both Teheren and Newcomb have much higher xFIP than ERA.  So look for Atlanta to regress back to a .500 record eventually. 

Happy Fathers Day to everyone.  Let's enjoy the day with some winners. MLB Pittsburgh -105 (Archer, xFIP 4.87) vs Miami (Alcantara, xFIP 5.06).  I know Archer hasn't been great this year, but that's primarily due to 24% of fly balls being home runs against him.  That rate would be hard to maintain against a batting practice machine.  Alcantara is just terrible with a K:BB ratio of less than 2:1 and he walks 11% of batters.  Archer has been unlucky, Alcantara is just bad. Cincinnati -165 (Gray, xFIP 3.55) vs Texas (Jurado, xFIP 4.27).  Jurado is a fly ball pitcher with a 13% home run rate.  That's not a good combination in Cincinnati, known as the Great Little Ballpark. COPA America Uruguay -145 vs Ecuador.  Ecuador is unlikely to score, so Uruguay need to get just 1 to win. I also bet Justin Rose +140 to win the US Open.  He's one shot back of  Gary Woodland who I think will collapse under the pressure.  Koepka is 3 shots behind Rose, but can he win 3 cons