EppleySports

Free picks keep winning. That's 4 or 5 in a row?  Maybe more, I haven't been keeping track.  My free pick record since the beginning of this blog in March is better than nearly any record you'll find on Pickmonitor or any other site.   Use a few bucks from your winnings to become a member and make even more money.  I need another winner, I haven't won enough yet Eppley. MLB: NY Mets -135 (Stroman, xFIP 3.94) vs Arizona (Young, xFIP 4.42).    Young's numbers appear to be average with a xFIP in the mid 4's and K:BB 3:1.  But his BABIP .233 tells us he's due for regression which means he's actually well below average.  Stroman's numbers are pretty good with a xFIP below 4 and K:BB nearly 3:1.  But he's accomplished this with a BABIP .387.  So he's also due for regression in a good way, which means he's even better than his current numbers suggest.   Mets have a better bullpen, despite the public's perception their bullpen stinks, a

Free picks just keep winning. I don't know the exact record anymore, but I know it's been a while since the last loss.  Let's get right to it: MLB San Diego -105 (Paddack, xFIP 4.14) vs Chicago Cubs (Hamels, xFIP 4.36).  Hamels isn't bad with a K:BB just under 3:1, but Paddack is better with nearly a 5:1.   Then consider the Padres hit lefties extremely well, .260/.338/.452 vs lefties and .238/.301/.410 vs righties.   Cubs also lousy on the road and a terrible bullpen.   Let's take the Padres at a pretty cheap price.

I know I missed a few days of posting over the weekend, and boy did I hear about it!  I got lots of messages wanting to know what happened to the free picks.  I didn't realize how popular they are.  I'll try not to miss so many days, but the weekends do get busy this time of year.  Remember I do the handicapping, I watch line movements, I make bets, I enter picks, I answer emails, I do everything on my own.  There's no team here, no partners or secretary.  I'm not complaining, I love doing it, but just wanted to let everyone know why sometimes I might not have a blog post. The football results over the weekend were a slight disappointment.  There were a few games that we were unlucky on, but these type of games even out in the long-run.  But we all remember the ones that go against us and seem to forget the ones that go our way, so it feels like the football gods are against us.  The overall result was down a few units.  Anyone who bought the weekend games, I'll

Weekend Football Green Bay was a winner yesterday.  Thanks to everyone who bought that winner.  The best deal is to become a member and get every pick for the rest of the season.  But for those just wanting this weekend's picks, click the buy button above and get all picks for $50 dollars.  That's every college pick on Saturday and every NFL pick on Sunday.  You will also get the baseball picks included. College Football: Marshall +12 vs Boise State.  

The NFL season begins and I know it brings people out of the woodwork.  Consider there will be more money bet on this one NFL game than all the baseball games today combined.   Another example is there will be more money bet on this week's NFL games than all the tennis matches at the US Open for the next 10 years.   With all that money being bet, the NFL is the only sport where the public can actually move the line.  In other words, a large bet on an NFL game doesn't necessarily mean it's sharp money. I do have a bet on the NFL game tonight.  If you become a member you will get every game this year. Send email for details.  But I know some of you just want tonight's game so you can get it here for just $20 bucks.  If it doesn't win, I'll give you access for the rest of September for free . $20 bucks for Packers vs Bears winner.  Send an email after paying and I'll send the game right away. MLB: Detroit -125 1st 5 innings (Boyd, xFIP 3.72) vs K

September baseball is probably the most difficult time of year to bet baseball because it's no secret which teams are playing for something and which teams are mailing it in.   The public is going to bet the big favorites no matter what the price is, but sharps start to shy away from the underdogs because there's no effort by some teams who are just playing out the season.  That's why we are seeing a lot more -300's now.  Public bets the chalk and there's no buyback from sharps, so books just keep inflating the price in hopes of finding someone interested in betting Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, Colorado, Miami, etc.  Betting a -300 chalk should make your knees weak and want to vomit.  Anyone suggesting that's a good bet is someone you should run away from.  On the other hand, do you want an underdog with only a 25% - 30% chance of winning?  Yes there's value in the price, but it's probably going to lose.  And with only about 25 days left in the sea

Baseball on a nice 4 day run, but not much standing out on the overnights.  Many games don't have lines yet. One game to look for in the morning is the line on the Yankees game.  Volquez is scheduled for Texas, who walks more hitters than he strikesout and has an xFIP 6.56.  That's bad, real bad.  But it gets worse, he has an xFIP 5.33 in Rookie League this year and a K:BB 1:1.   Oh brother,  he sucks in Rookie ball and now faces the Yankees?  If Texas were playing for anything, he wouldn't be pitching.  Anything less than -300 would be a good bet on the Yankees, maybe even a rare case for -1.5 on the run line.  Another line to look for in the morning is the Total in the Cubs game.  There's never an overnight Total listed for Wrigley Field because of the wind.  But one of the best Under umpires is working the plate, so a Total of 9 or higher would be a good Under bet as long as the wind isn't howling straight over the wall.