EppleySports

  A winner in the UCL yesterday with Villarreal, but I don't see any value in today's matches.  I think Atletico will put up a fight against Man City, but I worry about them being able to score.  Ideally, Atletico would want to play defense and wait for counter opportunities, but scoring will become more urgent the longer the match goes.  If Atletico can score early, they can be patient and wait for their chances. But if it gets late in the match and they need to start pressing forward, City is likely to score on a counter attack.  I lean towards Atletico on the goal line or a double chance, but I didn't bet it.  In the other match, Benfica has virtually no chance against Liverpool.   MLB LA Dodgers (Kershaw) vs Minnesota (Paddack) Under 9 -120 

  NBA playoffs start today.  I have 2 picks already sent to members.  Also a baseball pick, which is off to a winning start to the season. The Champions League is back in action today with the 2nd leg of last week's matches.  The casual bettor thinks Bayern Munich is going to light the scoreboard up and make up for last week's poor performance.  However, it's not that Bayern generated a bunch of chances and just didn't convert, instead they just never created any great chances.  Bayern may play better at home, but we can win a bet on Villarreal even if Bayern wins and advances.   Villarreal +2 -140 vs Bayern Munich.   Members got this at +1.75 -102 when the line opened, which is about 1.5% better than the current line.  

  No EPL picks yesterday, but I have 2 picks today.  Also have a couple baseball picks and probably some NHL picks.  No NBA picks recently as many of the games don't matter right now.  Playoffs start soon.  EPL Manchester City vs Liverpool Under 2.75  -108 

  Yesterday I wrote about one way to know a social media "expert" is really just a guesser who in the long-term will lose.  Today I'll give you another sign that indicates he isn't a pro bettor.   The social media betting "experts" think giving a long detailed analysis of why they made the pick is showing what a great "handicapper" they are.  It's actually the opposite.  Anyone who starts telling you about a team's recent record is not a pro. They will say this team is 5-1 in their last 6, they are hot and that's why I bet them!  Of course they probably use a dozen more explanation points to really impress you.  A team's recent record is meaningless, it's not even a consideration. This is the gambling fallacy of recency bias, which is favoring recent outcomes over historical ones.  Maybe you've heard the public bets on what they last saw.  That's true, and it's another example of recency bias.   Now the opposite of r

  So you're follow a social media "expert" handicapper who has a 5 unit max play.  I'm sure he also has a dozen fire emojis and a whole bunch of explanation points to show you just how serious he is.  He probably also claims he's 7-2 on his big 5 unit max plays.  As if 9 picks means anything.   The biggest red flag that this "expert" is anything but an expert is his statement about a 5 unit pick.  Here's a secret you will only hear from someone who really does win long-term betting on sports: pro's don't use unit sizes.  All bets are max bets.  If the bet has value, why would you bet anything less than the max?  If the bet doesn't have value, why would you bet anything at all?   So determine what amount you wish to bet and that's what you bet on every game.  Generally 1% of bankroll, but never ever more than 2%.  If God himself told you the final score in advance, bet 2% of bankroll.   Some pro's may bet different amount on differ

  Bayern couldn't generate any offense yesterday.  22 shots, but 14 from outside the box.  Total xG was 1.17.  I'd look for Bayern to play significantly better in the 2nd leg at home, but I suspect that will be baked into the price. The EPL split 1-1 with Burnley winning at a nice price but the 2 PK's for Everton killed the Under.   Also had a winner on the ice.   NBA playoffs are starting, and the baseball season is beginning.  I have at least 2 baseball picks today.  Possibly some hockey or basketball.   MLB Pittsburgh (Brubaker) vs St Louis (Wainwright) Over 8 -105.  Members got this at 7.5.  Come join me and start betting before the line moves. 

  Another winner in the UCL yesterday, so I'll give you another one for free today.  Also, the NBA continues to win as always, going 3-0 yesterday and bringing the season to +20 units.  That's on a one unit per game basis.  So $100 bettors are up 2K, $500 bettors are up 10K. It's not unusual, I've never had a losing year, or anything close to a losing year.  All picks documented at BetStamp.  Come join and start winning long-term like a pro.  I'm sure you've seen the social media betting "experts" post a free pick that "just missed my card" or "didn't quite make the cut."  Well if they didn't bet it, why the hell are they giving it to you?  C'mon you know the answer, they aren't betting anything.  None of them are.   My free picks are games I've personally bet and sent to members.  The free pick is just one of the many games I bet that day.  Every game I bet gets sent to members and is entered on BetStamp.   UCL